so on condition that Austria-Hungary gave an assurance that she would respect the sovereignty of Servia and submit certain of the demands of the Austrian note, which Servia had not accepted, to an international discussion. The President thinks that these conditions will not be accepted by Austria.' (Modified quotation, July 30, B. W. P. no. 99.)

On July 31, the German Chancellor, Von BethmannHollweg, telegraphed the German Ambassador at St. Petersburg: "In spite of still pending mediatory negotiations, and although we ourselves have up to the present moment taken no measures for mobilization, Russia has mobilized her entire army and navy; in other words, mobilized against us also. By these Russian measures we have been obliged, for the safeguarding of the Empire, to announce that 'danger of war' threatens us, which does not yet mean mobilization. Mobilization, however, must follow unless Russia ceases within twelve hours all warlike measures against us and Austria-Hungary, and gives us definite assurance thereof. Kindly communicate this at once to M. Sazonof and wire hour of its communication to him." (July 31, G. W. B. exhibit 24.)

That same day, the British Ambassador, Sir Edward Goschen 'spent an hour with Von Jagow, the German Secretary of State, urging him to accept Sir Edward Grey's proposal for mediation of the four disinterested powers (cf. B. W. P. no. 111); but Von Jagow, though he expressed himself as sympathizing with Sir Edward's proposal and appreciating his continued efforts to maintain peace, said it was impossible for the German Government to consider any proposal until they had received an answer from Russia to their communication made that day. Sir Edward Goschen asked the Secretary why the German demand had been made even more difficult for Russia to accept by asking her to demobilize in the south as well, and was told that it was to prevent Russia from saying that all her mobiliza

tion was directed only against Austria.' (Modified quotation, July 31, B. W. P. no. 121.)

When the German military attaché at St. Petersburg learned through Prince Troubetzkoy that 'Russia felt she could not forego her mobilization, he told him the blame for the terrible consequences must be laid to the premature mobilization against Austria, engaged after all in a merely local war with Servia. Germany's situation was clear, and the responsibility rested upon Russia for disregarding Austria's assurances that she had no territorial ambitions in Servia. Austria, he said, had mobilized against Servia and not against Russia, and there was no cause for immediate action on Russia's part. He further added that after the horrible crime of Serajevo, it was impossible for Germany to understand Russia's declaration that she could not desert her brethren in Servia; and finally he told the Prince he need not be surprised if Germany's army were to be mobilized.' (Modified quotation, July 30, G. W. B. exhibit 18; cf. A. R. B. no. 50.)

'That evening, July 30, the German Ambassador came again and urged on M. Sazonof, but in less categorical terms, that Russia should cease her military preparations, and affirmed that Austria would not infringe the territorial integrity of Servia.' (Modified quotation, July 30, F. Y. B. no. 103.)

On July 30, M. Jules Cambon, French Ambassador at Berlin, reports his interview with the German Secretary of State. Herr von Jagow said that "he feared that Austria might mobilize completely in consequence of the partial mobilization of Russia, which might bring about the answering blow of total Russian mobilization, and, in consequence, that of Germany.

"I pointed out to the Secretary of State that he himself had said to me that Germany would not consider herself forced to mobilize unless Russia mobilized upon the German frontier, and that such was not the case. He replied

that that was true, but that the heads of the army insisted that all delay was a loss of strength to the German army, and that 'the words I recalled did not constitute a firm engagement on his side.' This interview gave me the impression that the chances of peace were still further diminished." (Extract, July 30, F. Y. B. no. 109. Cf. no. 67.)

July 30, M. Sazonof told the French and British Ambassadors that the Russian Government had absolute proof that, Germany was making military and naval preparations against Russia - more particularly in the direction of the Gulf of Finland. The Minister said that if Austria rejected the proposal he had submitted at Germany's request, 'preparations for general mobilization would be proceeded with, and the inevitable result would be a European war. Public opinion in Russia was stirred to such a pitch that if Austria refused to make a concession, Russia could not hold back, and now that she knew Germany was arming, she could, for strategical reasons, hardly postpone converting partial into general mobilization.' (Modified quotation, July 30, B. W. P. no. 97.)

"The news of the bombardment of Belgrade during the night and morning of the 30th provoked very deep feeling in Russia. The French Ambassador found it hard to un

1 At first appearance this change of attitude on the part of Herr von Jagow lays him open to the charge of insincerity. It has been suggested by Professor Munroe Smith that this dispatch shows that the German Secretary was overborne by the strategists and prevented from adhering to the plans worked out by the diplomatists. (See "Military Strategy versus Diplomacy," Political Science Quarterly, vol. xxx [1915], no. 1, pp. 71– 72.) There seems to have been some sinister influence at work which overbalanced the sincere, though hesitating and awkward, efforts of Von Bethmann-Hollweg toward peace. Perhaps history will show the existence of a court camarilla of military authorities, seconded by Von Tchirsky at Vienna, and working to precipitate a war. This will explain the most extraordinary admission of the German Under-Secretary of State that 'the Foreign Office regretted the sudden return of the Emperor, acting on his own initiative, for fear his sudden return might cause speculation and excitement.' (Modified quotation, July 26, B. W. P. no. 33.) May not the German Foreign Office have feared that they could no longer control undisturbed the negotiations in progress?

derstand the attitude of Austria, whose provocations, from the beginning of the crisis, had followed without fail Russia's efforts at conciliation, and the satisfactory conversations exchanged between St. Petersburg and Vienna.' (Modified quotation, July 31, F. Y. B. no. 113.)

Germany for her part felt that she must reply to Russian mobilization (cf. B. W. P. no. 98). Von Bethmann-Hollweg told Sir Edward Goschen that 'he could not leave his country defenseless while time was being utilized by other powers; and that if military measures were being taken by Russia against Germany also, it would be impossible for him to remain quiet. He said that it was quite possible that in a very short time, perhaps to-day, the German Government would take some very serious step, and that he was just on the point of going to have an audience with the Emperor. The Chancellor added that the news of the active preparations on the Russo-German frontier had reached him just when the Tsar had appealed to the Emperor, in the name of their old friendship, to mediate at Vienna, and when the Emperor was actually conforming to that request.'1 (Modified quotation, July 31, B. W. P. no. 108.)

Later on in the same day the German Chancellor, Von Bethmann-Hollweg, told Sir Edward Goschen that they were informed by their Ambassador at St. Petersburg that 'the Russian army and fleet were being mobilized, and that Germany would at once proclaim Kriegsgefahr (danger of war), since the Russian general mobilization could be directed only against Germany. The Chancellor explained that Kriegsgefahr signified the taking of certain precautionary measures consequent upon strained relations with a foreign country.' (Modified quotation, July 31, B. W. P. no. 112; cf. A. R. B. no. 52.)

Von Jagow, German Secretary of State for Foreign

1 The telegrams exchanged between the two Emperors and King George are discussed further on.

Affairs, told the Russian Ambassador that 'the pour parlers [negotiations] between the two countries, which had been difficult enough in consequence of the mobilization against Austria, became increasingly so in the presence of the serious military measures Russia was taking against Germany; news regarding these, according to the Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs, had been received in Germany from every side, and must inevitably provoke analogous measures on the part of Germany.' (Modified quotation, July 31, R. O. P. no. 68.) 'If the German Government had failed to meet the imminent peril confronting them, as a result of Russia's mobilizing her entire land and naval forces, it would have jeopardized the safety and even the existence of Germany.' (Modified quotation, August 1, G. W. B. exhibit 26.)

7. Germany delivers an ultimatum to Russia

On August 1, M. Sazonof telegraphed the Russian representatives abroad:-"At midnight the German Ambassador, acting upon the instructions of his Government, declared to me, that if within twelve hours, that is by mid-day of Saturday, we had not begun to demobilize, not only against Germany, but also against Austria, the German Government would be forced to give the order for mobilization. To my inquiry whether this meant war, the Ambassador replied in the negative, but added that we were very near it." (August 1, R. O. P. no. 70; cf. F. Y. B. no. 120.)

After the presentation of Germany's ultimatum to Russia, M. Sazonof declared to the British Ambassador that 'the action of the Austro-Hungarian Government and the German preparations had forced the Russian Government to order mobilization. He said he had forwarded to Vienna his telegram modified in an attempt to meet the suggestion of the British Government, and that he would adhere to it if Sir Edward Grey could obtain its acceptance