CHAPTER VI MOBILIZATION The meaning of mobilization The issuance of the order for general mobilization — Intermediate military preparations The fatal succession of mobilizations. 1. The meaning of mobilization MOBILIZATION is a system by which a country is enabled to pass from its ordinary condition of peace into a state of full preparation for war. The speed and order with which this operation can be effected are the first considerations. The rapidity of mobilization is a prime factor of the military strength of a country, for whether the preparation be for aggression or defense, the country which can mobilize most rapidly will be able to strike its adversary while it is in the peculiarly disorganized condition incident upon mobilization. The tremendous transformation which occurs in a state passing from a peace to a war footing is one of the most complex and rapid in human society. It is like some of those marvelous, almost instantaneous, metamorphoses of the insect world. The plans have been previously worked out in every detail, and each individual has received the requisite drill and an individual copy of the written instructions informing him of the part he is to play. When the order is given by the head of the state, every prospective soldier, wherever he may be, knows where to go. The system depends upon every individual's performing his part faithfully and expeditiously. What each state desires is to escape all unnecessary military burdens by reducing the number of effectives as far as possible in time of peace. The more rapid and more efficient the mobilization, the less extensive, under normal conditions, need be the military preparations and burdens. Rapidity of mobilization, however, is not easy to obtain, for with every gain in time goes a disproportionate increase in expense, not to speak of additional burdens put upon the organizing faculty of the Government. It would be disastrous to have the system of mobilization break down and leave the country at the mercy of a neighbor able to complete his own mobilization in an orderly even though less rapid manner. The political situation of each state determines in general the military economy which it will adopt. Between the two great neighboring countries, Russia and Germany, the contrast is most striking. Russia has none of the facilities for rapid mobilization. She lacks railways and military stores, and above all, she has no bureaucratic organization sufficiently perfected to mobilize great masses of men with rapidity. To offset these disadvantages, Russia has unlimited resources in good fighting men whom she can place in the field without disorganizing the economic life of the nation, and if Germany or Austria should, through their rapidity in mobilization or any other cause, gain an initial advantage, Russia could retire toward the interior and oblige her adversaries to attempt what Napoleon failed to accomplish - an invasion and conquest of Russia. Even if successful, the invader could keep the country in subjugation only by an immense army of occupation. Just as some of the less highly developed forms of life recover from mutilation and continue their normal life, Russia, when the invader had tired of his efforts permanently to subjugate the country, would resume her customary national life. As a consequence of these conditions, Russia has less reason to dread the advent of war, for she risks less than the other powers. In Germany we find the exact antithesis of the conditions just described. Military organization and preparation have been carried to the highest point of perfection, and the best thought and effort of an efficient bureaucracy are utilized to mobilize and maintain the military strength of the country. Germany has a network of strategic railways along her frontiers and has worked out every minute detail of the plans for passing, in the shortest possible time, from a peace footing to complete armament. Since the formation of the Dual Alliance and the strengthening of the bonds of the Triple Entente, Germany has considered that her security against a combination overwhelming in numbers lay in her ability to complete her mobilization and strike her adversaries while they were still in the disorganized state which necessarily accompanies the transformation from a peace footing to that of war. The French system, though slower than that of Germany, lags behind by a few days only, so that Germany in case of war must lose no time and strike her at once with irresistible force, otherwise she would lose the advantage of her rapidity of mobilization. When France should have been crushed, Germany considered that she would still have time to transfer her forces to her eastern frontier and strike Russia before she had completed her military preparations. The danger of this situation was not lost on France, and she well recognized that Germany intended to make her bear the brunt of any conflict which should occur - make her the "hostage" for Russia's good behavior. France might have attempted to meet Germany on her own ground by developing plans for a mobilization equally rapid, and to this result she would have been helped by the great advantage she possesses in having only one extent of frontier open to attack, and that relatively short. Except for the Franco-German boundary she is indeed secure from attack. The Pyrenees and the Alps cover all but two vulnerable localities bordering on Belgium and on Switzerland, and the perpetual neutralization of those states constituted a barrier between herself and her powerful neighbor. Even if this neutralization should be disregarded, France might count on several days before the German forces could break through to her frontier. Such a policy, however, would have imposed burdens which the French taxpayers were unwilling to bear. Having no desire to launch upon an aggressive policy of revenge, they felt that the Dual Alliance with Russia would make Germany hesitate before commencing an attack. Everything considered, the nation preferred to compromise and to maintain their military organization on such a basis as to afford an effective and vigorous resistance to Germany, without attempting to develop a mobilization and a power of attack to equal Germany's. They trusted to the skillfully constructed fortifications on their border to delay the German onslaught until the French forces behind this barrier should have completed their mobilization. Of course, military authorities had to take into consideration the possibility that Germany would not respect the neutrality of Belgium or Switzerland; but in that event, it was evident that France would almost certainly be able to secure the assistance of England. These various considerations were responsible for the situation in which we find France upon the outbreak of the war. The military experts on neither side of the frontier seem to have realized how easy it would be for the perfected German artillery to break down any existing system of fortifications. When war became inevitable, Germany's problem was then to find some way, before France had mobilized, of crushing her with sufficient celerity to allow time to turn against Russia, before the latter could collect her forces. The solution which Germany adopted is bound up with the question of Belgian neutrality, under which we shall consider it more at length. 2. The issuance of the order for general mobilization The plans of mobilization adopted in the different countries are, thanks to an extensive system of espionage, known to the general staffs of all the European powers. The respective Governments are able, therefore, to gauge the time at which a full or partial mobilization begins. It is also perfectly well understood that, unless Germany is willing to forego the advantage which she derives from her superior speed, she must undertake her own mobilization the moment either of her neighbors begins. But, as soon as general mobilization has started, it is not practicable to arrest it before completion, since all the individuals withdrawn from their normal activity would have to retrace their steps. While this return to a peace footing was going on, and until the country had resumed its former situation, it could not begin to mobilize again and complete its preparations according to the plans devised, until sufficient time had elapsed to return to the peace footing. Consequently, in the interval elapsing between the moment of arresting mobilization and the complete return to the normal peace footing, the country would be in a most vulnerable condition, which would have disastrous consequences, should it be the object of attack. When, therefore, the mobilization decree had once been issued and the preparations had begun to run their course, Germany could no longer delay, but would have to strike at France before the latter had finished her mobilization. In other words, from the moment France or Germany issues a decree for general mobilization, it might be regarded that war was almost as certain as though a formal declaration had been made; and when Germany felt that she was confronted by the danger of a Franco-Russian coalition against her, she considered that her only feasible plan of campaign consisted, as we have pointed out, in attempting to crush France before Russia should have completed her mobilization.2 1 1 Cf. F. Y. B. no. 50. 2 In this discussion I am explaining the military situation and basing conclusions on strategic considerations alone. There are other practical considerations of great weight which might have deterred Germany from threatening France even if France would not agree to remain neutral. |