9. The Cambon suggestion of mediation after Austria's
occupation of Belgrade

On July 29, the French Ambassador at Berlin suggested anew to the German Under-Secretary of State that 'it seemed to him that when Austria had entered Servia, and so satisfied her military prestige, the moment might then be favorable for the four disinterested powers to discuss the situation and come forward with suggestions for preventing graver complications. The Under-Secretary of State seemed to think the idea worthy of consideration, as he replied that that would be a different matter from the conference proposed by Sir Edward Grey.' (Modified quotation, July 29, B. W. P. no. 76.)

That same day, whether or not in consequence of the Cambon suggestion, Sir Edward Grey proposed to the German Ambassador at London that, since it was 'too late for all military operations against Servia to be suspended, it might be possible to bring some mediation into existence, if Austria, while saying that she must hold the occupied territory until she had complete satisfaction from Servia, stated that she would not advance further, pending an effort of the powers to mediate between her and Russia." (Modified quotation, July 29, B. W. P. no. 88; cf. B. W. P. no 100.) As soon as Von Jagow, German Secretary of State, learned of Sir Edward Grey's proposal, he asked the Austro-Hungarian Government whether they would be willing to accept mediation on the basis of the occupation by Austrian troops of Belgrade or some other point, and issue their conditions from there. After expressing fears that Russia's mobilization might make it diffi

1 Mediation or intervention on the basis of the occupation of Belgrade was indicated by M. Sazonof's remark as early as July 25, when he expressed the thought that the Servian Government might retire from Belgrade and appeal to the powers. (B. W. P. no. 17.) I have called it the Cambon suggestion so as to distinguish it, and because it was put forward by M. Jules Cambon.

cult for Austria, who had 'as yet mobilized only against Servia, but would probably find it necessary also against Russia,' the Secretary said that if Sir Edward could 'succeed in getting Russia to agree to the above basis for an arrangement and in persuading her in the mean time to take no steps which might be regarded as an act of aggression against Austria, he still saw some chance that European peace might be preserved.' (Modified quotations, July 30, B. W. P. no. 98.)

According to the German Memorandum, the German Government, thinking Russia would agree, forwarded to Vienna as a basis of negotiation the proposal brought forward by England that Austria should dictate her conditions from Servia, i.e., after having marched into Servia. (G. W. B., Memorandum, p. 11.)

That same day, July 30, the German Ambassador informed Sir Edward Grey that "the German Government would endeavor to influence Austria, after taking Belgrade and Servian territory in region of the frontier, to promise not to advance farther, while the powers endeavored to arrange that Servia should give satisfaction sufficient to pacify Austria. Territory occupied would of course be evacuated when Austria was satisfied." (Extract, July 30, B. W. P. no. 103.)

After this interview Sir Edward Grey, following up this plan of mediation between Austria and Servia on the basis of Austria's occupation of Belgrade, and the cessation of further aggression, telegraphed the British Ambassador at St. Petersburg in an effort to secure Russia's consent to this arrangement and acquiescence in an agreement to 'suspend further military preparations on all sides.' Referring to the Russian offer of terms at the request of the German Ambassador as a last effort toward peace, Sir Edward hoped, in spite of the Russian Ambassador's belief that the terms could not be modified, that 'if the Austrian advance were stopped after the occupation of Bel

grade, the Russian [Sazonof] formula 1 might be changed to read, that the powers would examine how Servia could fully satisfy Austria without impairing Servian rights or independence.'2 (Modified quotations, July 30, B. W. P. no. 103.)

M. Viviani, in accordance with Sir Edward Grey's request, agreed to the English suggestion (Cambon's suggestion), and instructed the French Ambassador at St. Petersburg as follows:

"Please inform M. Sazonof urgently that the suggestion of Sir E. Grey appears to me to furnish a useful basis for conversation between the powers, who are equally desirous of working for an honorable arrangement of the AustroServian conflict, and of averting in this manner the dangers which threaten general peace.

"The plan proposed by the Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs, by stopping the advance of the Austrian army and by entrusting to the powers the duty of examining how Servia could give full satisfaction to Austria without endangering the sovereign rights and the independence of the kingdom, by thus affording Russia a means of suspending all military preparations, while the other powers are to act in the same way, is calculated equally to give satisfaction to Russia and to Austria and to provide for Servia an acceptable means of issue from the present difficulty.

"I would ask you carefully to be guided by the foregoing considerations in earnestly pressing M. Sazonof to give his

1 The Russian formula here referred to is that first offered by M. Sazonof at the request of the German Ambassador at St. Petersburg. (See post, §11.)

As Mr. Price very truly remarks: "The difference between this and the first [Russian] formula is that the powers are specially mentioned as arbitrators to decide upon those points concerning the sovereignty and independence of Servia." (C. M. Price: The Diplomatic History of the War, p. 57.)

3 That M. Viviani refers here to the Cambon suggestion and not to the Grey suggestion appears from F. Y. B. no. 104; cf. F. Y. B. no. 103.

adherence without delay to the proposal of Sir E. Grey, of which he will have been himself informed." (Extract, July 31, F. Y. B. no. 112; cf. B. W. P. no. 104.)

This mediation, on the basis of the occupation of Belgrade, may have been suggested by what M. Sazonof remarked to the British Ambassador at St. Petersburg, July 25, that he 'thought from a conversation which he had had with the Servian Minister the day before, that in the event of the Austrians attacking Servia, the Servian Government would abandon Belgrade, and withdraw their forces into the interior, while they made, at the same time, an appeal to the powers to help them. The Russian Minister declared that he was in favor of their making that appeal.' (Modified quotation, July 25, B. W. P. no. 17.) The day before the proposal was brought forward by the British Ambassador at Berlin, Von Tchirsky, German Ambassador at Vienna, 'told his British colleague that he thought Germany would be able to prevent Austria from making any exorbitant demands if Servia could be induced to submit, and to ask for peace early, say, as soon as the occupation of Belgrade had been accomplished.' (Modified quotation, July 30, B. W. P. no. 100.)

10. The Grey proposal for a collective guaranty of the powers During the two days preceding Germany's declaration of war against Russia, the diplomatic activity of the powers in their efforts to avoid war seems to have been redoubled and the overlapping of the various proposals made and supported by the different powers makes it very difficult to unravel the web. We have already seen how, on July 30, Austria agreed to renew direct conversations with Russia, while England, with the support of France, brought forward the suggestion originally made by M. Jules Cambon at Berlin.

On July 30, the Marquis di San Giuliano told the British Ambassador at Rome that he was 'telegraphing to the

Italian Ambassador at Berlin to ask the German Government to suggest that the idea of an exchange of views between the four powers should be resumed in any form which Austria would consider acceptable. It seemed to him that Germany might invite Austria to state exactly the terms which she would demand from Servia, and give a guaranty that she would neither deprive her of independence nor annex territory. It would be useless to ask for anything less than was contained in the Austrian ultimatum, and Germany would support no proposal that did not imply success for Austria. It might, on the other hand, be ascertained from Russia what she would accept, and once they knew the standpoints of these two countries, discussions could be commenced at once. There was still time so long as Austria had received no check. He in any case was in favor of continuing an exchange of views with the English Government, if the idea of discussions between the four powers was impossible.' (Modified quotation, July 30, B. W. P. no. 106; cf. B. W. P. no. 79.)

In line with this suggestion Sir Edward Grey telegraphed, July 31, to Sir Edward Goschen: "I hope that the conversations which are now proceeding between Austria and Russia may lead to a satisfactory result. The stumbling-block hitherto has been Austrian mistrust of Servian assurances and Russian mistrust of Austrian intentions with regard to the independence and integrity of Servia. It has occurred to me that, in the event of this mistrust preventing a solution being found by Vienna and St. Petersburg, Germany might sound Vienna, and I would undertake to sound St. Petersburg, whether it would be possible for the four disinterested powers to offer to Austria that they would undertake to see that she obtained full satisfaction of her demands on Servia, provided that they did not impair Servian sovereignty and the integrity of Servian territory. As Your Excellency is aware, Austria has already declared her willingness to respect them.