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work to find some solution satisfactory alike to Austria and Russia. According to these terms Austria would receive adequate guaranty against the continuance of the hostile Servian propaganda and unfriendly action of Servia, of which she justly complained. With due regard to the rights of Servia and the prestige of her mighty protector, nothing would be accepted which should infringe upon Servia's rights as a sovereign state. It was Sir Edward's thought that Germany might support this proposal at Vienna while the other powers entered into a friendly discussion at London, but although the German Government expressed a favorable opinion of this proposal, the Secretary for Foreign Affairs, Von Jagow, refused to coöperate at Vienna until an answer to the German ultimatum should be received from Russia. This dashed all hopes, since it was hardly likely that Russia would make a conciliatory reply to an ultimatum couched in such terms.

It is hard to overestimate the place which compromise plays in the affairs of nations. But for the system of mutual "give and take," all international intercourse were well-nigh impossible, and except where there is an intention to force an issue, in all disputes the governments concerned are ready to concede something of their extreme claims for the sake of reaching a half-way and peaceful result. It is the work of the diplomatist to trace this line,

1 Cf. R. O. P. no. 51, where Von Jagow told the Russian Ambassador at Berlin that he learned that M. Sazonof was "more inclined than previously to find a compromise acceptable to all parties." M. Sazonof had said to the German Ambassador that, "after the concessions which had been made by Servia, it should not be very difficult to find a compromise to settle the other questions which remained outstanding, provided that Austria showed some good-will and that all the powers used their entire influence in the direction of conciliation." (Extract, July 29, B. W. P. no. 92 (2).)

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Such evidently was not the frame of mind of Baron Giesl von Gieslingen, the Austrian Minister at Belgrade, when two days before the presentation of the Austrian ultimatum he wrote to Vienna: Half measures, demands, endless debating, and finally a foul compromise, would be the hardest blow to Austria-Hungary's prestige in Servia and her standing as a great power

and for such negotiations a certain length of time is necessary. The more complex and delicate the situation, the longer must be the period allowed. In the present instance the diplomats realized from the very first that in place of weeks, a few days would have to suffice to effect the work of peace. The task would have been difficult enough in an atmosphere of general confidence and good will, but was rendered impossible by the mutual rivalries and distrust of the powers. In his speech in the House of Commons, August 3, Sir Edward Grey said:

"In the present crisis, it has not been possible to secure the peace of Europe; because there has been little time, and there has been a disposition at any rate in some quarters on which I will not dwell - to force things rapidly to an issue, at any rate to the great risk of peace, and, as we now know, the result of that is that the policy of peace, as far as the great powers (generally) are concerned, is in danger. . . .

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in Europe." (Extract, July 21, A. R. B. no. 6.) The Austrian Government seem to have taken these words to heart.

CHAPTER VIII

SIR EDWARD GREY AND THE ENGLISH DIPLOMACY

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The important rôle of England - Efforts to prevent war - Efforts to organize mediation — England refuses to take sides -The Anglo-French Entente - England declares that she is not interested in a Balkan question - England warns Germany that she will not hold aloof if France is involved - Germany's bid for English neutrality - Divergence of opinion in England - England's vital interests-England's inquiry relative to Belgium's neutrality-England asked to guarantee the neutrality of France - Germany's detention of English vessels - Germany invades Luxemburg - England agrees to protect the French coasts The British ultimatum.

1. The important rôle of England

In the midst of all these preparations, mobilizations and counter-mobilizations, England with her First Fleet assembled at Portsmouth was the key to the whole European situation. The fears of Austria and Germany and the hopes of France and Russia centered about the probable course of England. No other state was so free from entangling alliances, none was so secure from invasion, and in case of war, no state as a neutral would have had such an opportunity for commercial expansion. But England, having built up an immense empire, required security above everything; so her first desire was to prevent the outbreak of any war between the powers, and if this should not be possible, she still hoped to keep out of it herself.

At this critical juncture the control of England's foreign affairs was in the experienced hands of the broad-minded and large-framed statesman - Sir Edward Grey.1 In the short period between the presentation of the Austrian note at Belgrade and the British ultimatum at Berlin, Sir

1 Sir Edward Grey, third baronet, was born April 25, 1862. He was educated at Balliol College, Oxford, and has been a member of the Liberal party in Parliament since 1885. In 1892 he became Under-Secretary for Foreign Affairs, holding office three years. Since 1905 he has held the office of Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs.

Edward is shown by the British White Paper to have had a constant succession of interviews, and to have sent nearly sixty dispatches to the British representatives at the capitals of the great powers. Together with this great tax on his time and energy went the heaviest responsibility which has ever fallen to any single man. Under ordinary circumstances the responsibility of the British Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs is heavy enough, when he can refer to his colleagues and gauge the trend of opinion in his party or throughout the country as a whole; but when events move with such rapidity as they did just preceding the outbreak of the present war, he has to make almost instantaneous decisions on very important questions, where any misstep may destroy confidence in his party or even involve his country in war. He has to decide what the country wishes and what the country needs, and act upon it forthwith. It is easily understood that Sir Edward Grey's first object must have been to prevent the outbreak of war, but he had at the same time to be working to keep England out of the war should it prove inevitable. His great responsibility lay in deciding which plans or methods to follow. He had to be sure that he took no step without the support of a Cabinet which was torn by conflicting views; he had further to feel certain that the policy adopted would secure a large non-partisan majority in Parliament and be enthusiastically acclaimed by the press and the whole country. Not a very easy problem in statecraft, as we shall see when we come to examine the intricacies of the political situation and the sudden transformations during the fortnight preceding the declaration of war against Germany.

In the critical week following the presentation of the Austrian ultimatum, the diplomats tried one plan after another, and one plan in conjunction with another, and always it was Sir Edward Grey to whom they turned from all sides.

2. Efforts to prevent war

Sir Edward turned his attention from the very first to preventing war between any of the principal powers. As he observed to the German Ambassador at London, "When there was danger of a European conflict, it was impossible to say who would not be drawn into it." (B. W. P. no. 90.) He made suggestions, he fathered the proposals of others, he was ceaseless in his efforts for peace. He first advised Austria against an ultimatum, explaining how it would be likely to inflame public opinion in Russia, and could, he said, be introduced later if Servian procrastination made it necessary. When he learned that the time limit of the ultimatum was only forty-eight hours, he had recourse to the telegraph, and worked with France, Russia, and Italy in an attempt to prevail upon Austria, either directly or through the mediation of her ally, Germany, to extend the delay long enough to permit of finding some way out of the threatening complications. When Germany refused to join in making the representations at Vienna, and Austria refused the requested extension, Sir Edward instructed the British representative at Belgrade to bend his efforts toward securing a conciliatory reply from Servia. So successful was the combined influence of Russia, England, and France that for a moment it seemed as if Austria must accept Servia's reply, and forego the war for which her people were clamoring; but in spite of all the persuasion lavished upon her, Austria pronounced the reply unacceptable.1

3. Efforts to organize mediation

While all this was taking place, Sir Edward Grey had been striving to set up a mediatory conference at London,

1 Some of the indications of England's disposition to exercise a pacific and restraining influence at Vienna, Belgrade, and St. Petersburg will be found in the following dispatches: B. W. P. nos. 5, 6, 11, 17, 18, 30, 44, 46, 65, 72, 104, 110, 111; A. R. B. no. 38.

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