capable of taking up the direction of the Empire's political affairs. Had he not recently successfully put through the Bosnia-Herzegovina coup which had done so much to enhance Austrian prestige? There had been indications that, realizing the hopelessness of maintaining the German-Magyar foundation of the Empire, he was ready to broaden the basis of the Government and give to the principal groups the national independence at present enjoyed by the German and Magyar alone. This would have still further weakened German influence, and would have lessened the racial-political tie with Germany, but it might have made possible the organization in the Balkans of a great federated empire with Constantinople as its seat of government, and united by the overshadowing fear of Russian domination.1

As a result of the Balkan wars, Turkey and Bulgaria had been too much weakened to offer any effective support against Russian aggression or the spread of Russian influence in the peninsula. The Government of the Tsar could continue to rely upon the loyalty of the new Servia, strengthened and filled with enthusiasm by two successful campaigns in which she had doubled her territory and acquired Uskub, the ancient capital of the Serb Empire. In Bosnia, there was disaffection toward Austria and an ardent desire for union with Servia. As Austria would not tolerate any open expression of this desire, so natural on the part of the Serb and Serbo-Croat portion of the population in the provinces bordering on the Servian frontier, it was inevitable that secret organizations and conspiracies should spring up. It was easy for the agitators to cross over the Servian frontier and perfect their organization and plans undisturbed by the ubiquitous Austrian police officers and spies. Furthermore, Servia did nothing to restrain

1 See "The War in Europe," The Round Table, September, 1914. A remarkably interesting and suggestive article written with a strong antiMagyar bias.

her citizens from aiding these conspirators, nor did she interfere to prevent Servian citizens from organizing and carrying on an active propaganda for the union of Bosnia with Servia. On her side, Austria redoubled her efforts to prevent any outbreak in Bosnia.

12. The situation just before the War of 1914

Such was the condition when Franz Ferdinand and his morganatic wife, the Duchess of Hohenberg, decided to make a journey to Serajevo. The Servian Government, hearing of his intentions, warned him of the danger of which no doubt he was himself fully aware, but, as it might be considered to Servia's interest to prevent his journey, no significance seems to have been attached to the warning. After the failure of the first attempt on his life, the Archduke made an impassioned speech, in which he notified the authorities that they would be held responsible for his safety. The second attempt was successful, and on June 28, 1914, the fateful shot of Gavrilo Princip shattered the dearest hopes of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. The news of the assassination of the Archduke Franz Ferdinand, heir to the Empire of the Hapsburgs, and his wife, at the hand of political conspirators of Servian nationality or sympathy, was flashed over the wires to all parts of the world, and every intelligent individual realized that the removal of Franz Joseph's energetic heir would have some effect upon future events, but there was no general appreciation of the serious consequences threatened as a result of this assassination. Yet, from the moment the Young Turk party came into power in 1908 up to the assassination at Serajevo, there had been one continuous state of crisis in which no one could tell what the next month might bring forth. The chancelleries of Europe had realized already the gravity of the general European situation, and after the assassination they prepared with apprehension to watch attentively the course of events.

Since the outbreak of the war, Giolitti, ex-Premier of Italy, has made public that Austria, in August of 1913, notified the Italian Government that she intended to declare war on Servia with Germany's consent. This indicates how profoundly she had been affected by the changes in the Balkans. But what Austria and Germany designated as a defensive measure Italy considered aggression, and refused to make common cause with her allies. Whether Austria after waiting so long would have commenced a war against Servia without the additional friction resulting from the crime of Serajevo, it is impossible to tell. As Von Bülow himself has said, the collapse of Turkey was a blow to Germany and made necessary the introduction of a new Army Bill. The German-Austrian Empires were making every effort to regain the lost ground. But the other powers were naturally not willing to lose their advantage, and France replied to Germany's extraordinary war taxes to increase her armament, by lengthening the period of military service from two to three years, at the same time that she lent Russia her financial aid to reorganize her army, to build her fleet, and to lay down strategic railways along the German frontier. The German strategists may well have feared that England also would turn her attention toward her army. Germany at the zenith of her military effectiveness was obliged to contemplate the rapid increase of armament in Russia, possibly, too, in England. Another very important factor in the European situation was the bitterness so general in Germany after Agadir.

The French military attaché at Berlin writes: "We discover every day how deep and how lasting are the sentiments of wounded pride and rancor against us, provoked by the events of last year. The treaty of November 4, 1911, is a profound disappointment.

"The resentment felt in every part of the country is the same. All Germans, even the Socialists, resent our having taken their share in Morocco." (F. Y. B. no. 1, Annex 1.)

It is a curious circumstance, not without influence on the events we are considering, that each of the Entente Powers was, during July, in the throes of serious internal difficulties. Great Britain was admitted on every hand to be on the verge of a civil war; St. Petersburg was in the midst of a great strike, especially dangerous in a country which represses all expression of political opinion; in France, perhaps, the situation was most serious of all. The attempt to constitute a ministry in sympathy with the plans to strengthen the national defense had failed and the direction of affairs had passed into the hands of the Socialist and more radical groups. The Caillaux affair was disastrously affecting the prestige if not the very security of the Government, and the Minister of War chose the occasion to confess that the army was in a deplorable state of unpreparedness.

Such was the situation in Europe between the assassination, on June 28, and the presentation of the Austrian ultimatum, July 23. If Germany and Austria felt war was inevitable, it must be confessed that another opportunity equally favorable could hardly be expected. Nevertheless, the best-informed opinion could not believe in the reality of a great European war.1

For a few days following the crime, there was a calm such as often precedes a terrific tempest. The tone of the press might have caused alarm, but the accusations made in the Austrian and Servian newspapers were looked upon as a natural consequence of the emotion aroused by the tragedy of Serajevo. It was hoped these ebullitions might

1 After the event is the day of the scaremongers who proudly point to their prophecies, but if we turned back a few months we should find countless other prophecies unfulfilled. The same is true of the interesting military reports in the French Yellow Book. There must be many such reports in every Foreign Office of especial advantage to spur on the legislators to vote the supplies for increased armaments. Their significance depends upon the extent to which they are borne out by information from other sources. The critic ought also to be able to compare them with similar reports received in previous years.

afford a harmless outlet for pent-up feelings and allow the excitement to subside. In any event, it was thought no action would be taken until the results of the investigation of the outrage had been concluded and the findings made public. But less than a month after the assassination, Austria startled the world by addressing an ultimatum to Servia without any previous warning. It was the opening scene of the most tragic drama of human history.