without nominally interfering with the independence of Servia or taking away any of her territory, to turn her into a sort of vassal state.' This the Ambassador deprecated, and 'in reply to some further remarks of Sir Edward's as to the effect that the Austrian action might have upon the Russian position in the Balkans, said that, before the Balkan War, Servia had always been regarded as being in the Austrian sphere of influence.' (Modified quotation, July 29, B. W. P. no. 91.)

This last remark touches the very crux of the question. Servia, as a consequence of the Balkan War, had escaped from the position of a political vassal of Austria, and, from the Austrian point of view, it was perfectly natural that every effort should be made to reëstablish over her Austrian influence and political dictation. So, when the German Ambassador at St. Petersburg said that the German Government was 'willing to guarantee that Servian integrity would be respected by Austria,' M. Sazonof replied that 'this might be so, but nevertheless Servia would become an Austrian vassal, just as, in similar circumstance, Bokhara had become a Russian vassal. There would be a revolution in Russia if she were to tolerate such a state of affairs.' (Modified quotation, July 30, B. W. P. no. 97.)

The German Memorandum, issued when war with Russia was certain, gives a frank explanation of Austria's motives and states that "Russia, soon after the events brought about by the Turkish revolution of 1908, endeavored to form under Russian patronage a union of the Balkan States directed against Turkish integrity. This union, which succeeded in 1911 in depriving Turkey of a greater part of her European possessions, came to grief over the question of the distribution of spoils. Russia was

1 "The unanimous feeling in Ottoman political circles is that Austria, with the support of Germany, will attain her objects and that she will make Servia follow Bulgaria and enter into the orbit of the Triple Alliance." (Extract, July 27, F. Y. B. no. 65.)

not dismayed by this failure of her policies. The Russian statesmen adopted the plan of forming a new Balkan union under Russian patronage, directed no longer against Turkey, now crowded out of the Balkans, but against the Austro-Hungarian Monarchy. It was intended that Servia, in return for Bosnia and Herzegovina, acquired at the expense of the Dual Monarchy, should make over to Bulgaria the parts of Macedonia which she had acquired in the last Balkan War. To oblige Bulgaria to fall in with this plan she was to be isolated, Rumania was to be attached to Russia by means of a French propaganda, and Servia was to be promised Bosnia and the Herzegovina.

"Under these circumstances Austria could not consider it compatible with her dignity and the preservation of her national security longer to view supinely the working-out of this plan across the border." (G. W. B., Memorandum, p. 4.)

The Marquis di San Giuliano, as soon as he learned that the Russian Government had announced at Berlin her partial mobilization, thought the time was 'past for any further discussions on the basis of the Servian note.' The utmost he hoped for was that Germany might 'use her influence at Vienna to prevent or moderate any further demands on Servia' (modified quotation, July 29, B. W. P. no. 86), which meant that she might influence Austria not to make any further demands or take any action which would interfere with the maintenance of Servia's independence, thereby affecting the balance of power in the Balkans, and making a general war inevitable.

Meantime, the question of Austria's mobilization became so important as to overshadow that of the Austro-Servian relations, but as the question of the military preparations involves the relations of all the powers, it will be best to lay it aside until we take up the consideration of Russia's reply to Austria's attack upon Servia.

To the impartial observer who has followed the course

of Austria's action to this point, it may seem inexplicable, even in the face of a most serious grievance against her weaker neighbor, that a civilized state should wish to proceed so far in the abuse of force before there had been any opportunity for an unbiased investigation. It will, perhaps, help to understand the national psychology to compare our own conduct, not so very many years ago, in circumstances somewhat analogous, when the American nation was stirred by the loss of the Maine.1

1 Among the documents at the end of this volume has been placed a résumé of the negotiations between Spain and the United States following the destruction of the Maine and a comparison between the action of the United States in 1898 and that of Austria-Hungary in 1914.

CHAPTER III

THE AUSTRO-RUSSIAN DISCUSSIONS

Russia's interest in the Austro-Servian conflict-Russia believes Austria's action is directed against herself Russia considers immediate Russia partially mobilizes against Austria - The Tsar

action necessary

asks the Kaiser to try his mediation.

1. Russia's interest in the Austro-Servian conflict

FROM the date of the presentation of the Austrian ultimatum, the efforts which the powers had directed toward settling the Austro-Servian controversy had, of course, the object of preventing Russia's entry upon the scene. It was an A B C of European politics that Russia was deeply interested in the fate of the Slav states of the Balkan Peninsula.

Before taking his departure on leave of absence, the Russian Ambassador at Vienna assured his British colleague that any action taken by Austria to humiliate Servia could not leave Russia indifferent.' (Modified quotation, July 24, B. W. P. no. 7.)

Count Berchtold received Prince Kudachef, the Russian Chargé d'Affaires at Vienna, the morning after the presentation of the ultimatum and 'assured him that he laid special weight upon notifying him as soon as possible of the steps they had taken in Belgrade and making clear to him their point of view in this connection.

'Prince Kudachef, in thanking Count Berchtold for this attention, did not conceal from the Austrian Minister his uneasiness about Austria's categorical procedure toward Servia, remarking in this connection that they had been continuously preoccupied at St. Petersburg in considering whether the Austrian démarche would take the form of a

humiliation for Servia, which could not take place without affecting Russia.

'Count Berchtold took occasion to calm the Russian Chargé in this respect. Their goal, he told him, was to clear up the untenable attitude of Servia toward the Monarchy and for this purpose to influence the Government there, on the one hand, publicly to disavow the currents directed against the present stability of the Monarchy and to suppress them by administrative measures, and, on the other hand, to offer the Austrian Government the possibility of assuring itself of the conscientious execution of these measures. He furthermore dwelt upon the danger which a further tolerance of the Greater Servian propaganda would entail, not only for the integrity of the Monarchy, but also for the balance of power and the peace of Europe, and how much all dynasties, and not least of them the Russian, seemed to be threatened by a popular adoption of this view that a movement which made use of murder as a nationalist means of battle could remain unpunished.

'Finally, Count Berchtold pointed out that they did not seek for an acquisition of territory, but merely for the conservation of that which existed, a point of view which, he considered, should be understood by the Russian Government.' (Modified quotation, July 24, A. R. B. no. 18.)

As early as July 24, the British Ambassador at St. Petersburg had sounded M. Sazonof as to the course Russia would pursue, supposing Austria, even though the powers 'joined in making a communication to the effect that her active intervention in the internal affairs of Servia could not be tolerated, should nevertheless, in spite of their representations, proceed to embark on military measures against Servia. The Russian Minister for Foreign Affairs replied that he thought that Russian mobilization would at any rate have to be carried out, but that a Council of Ministers was being held that afternoon to con

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