INTRODUCTION Mr. Chairman, in a little less than 2 years, on April 1, 1990, we will observe the bicentennial of census-taking in this country. But in many important respects the 1990 census has already begun. We have completed our planning on most aspects of the census and are currently conducting dress rehearsal censuses in three locations. These are our final dry runs of operations before 1990. We have reported to you on the questionnaire content for 1990. Procurement for questionnaire printing will begin this September. We have already begun compiling the master address list for the census, having purchased addresses for urban areas. These addresses are being processed and given the correct geographic codes. We have begun listing addresses in the more rural areas where we cannot purchase address lists. Today, I will address the specific issues raised in your letter of invitation. PROJECTED POPULATION OF MICHIGAN IN 1990 First--the projected population of Michigan in 1990. In early April 1988, we released population projections for states. These projections indicate that Michigan's population may be 9,293,000 by July 1, 1990. Michigan's population was 9,262,078 as of April 1, 1980. That would represent a slight gain of less than 1 percent for the decade. Based on our population projections, the population of the 50 states and the District of Columbia may reach 249.9 million by July 1, 1990, a gain of 9.4 percent for the decade. FACTORS THAT CAUSE THE PROJECTED CHANGE IN MICHIGAN'S POPULATION Second--factors that cause the projected change in Michigan's population. Population projections are based on various assumptions that we make about the components of population change--births, deaths, and migration (internal and international). The estimates through the first part of the decade and the projections for the rest of the decade show that natural increase (births minus deaths) exceeds the estimate of net outmigration. As a result, Michigan is projected to show a slight gain in population for the decade. Migration levels are generally assumed to be a continuation of recent trends. There is no attempt to predict economic factors or their effects. The methodology we use to prepare projections will be discussed in detail in the state population projections report due out this June. APPORTIONMENT PROCESS Third--the apportionment process. Apportionment is the allocation of seats in the House of Representatives to each state based on the state's population as determined by the decennial census. The census and apportionment are mandated by Article 1, Section 2 of the Constitution. 3 The role of the Census Bureau in the apportionment process is to conduct the census itself. On behalf of the President, we calculate the apportionment based upon the results of the census. We must report the apportionment counts to the President within 9 months of Census Day. For the 1990 census, that will be by December 31, 1990. Within a week of the opening of the next session of Congress (after December 31, 1990), the President is required to transmit to the Clerk of the House of Representatives the census count for each state and the number of Representatives to which each state is entitled. Within another 15 calendar days, the Clerk of the House then notifies the governor of each state how many Representatives that state will be entitled to in the next Congress. In addition to the census counts, two other things are needed to calculate apportionment: (1) the total number of seats in the House of Representatives, and (2) a mathematical formula for apportioning the seats. Both of these are determined by Congress. The current House size, 435 members, has been unchanged since the apportionment following the 1910 census, except for a temporary increase at the time of the admission of Alaska and Hawaii. The mathematical formula used to calculate apportionment--"equal proportions"-is specified in Title 2, section 2 of the U.S. Code and has been used in each census beginning with 1940. ESTIMATED NUMBER OF UNDOCUMENTED IMMIGRANTS Fourth--the estimated number of undocumented immigrants in the 1980 census counts. We estimated that we counted 2,057,000 undocumented immigrants in the 1980 census. I want to emphasize that this is only an estimate prepared as part of our program to evaluate coverage in the 1980 census. This estimate was based on the census sample data. PROCEDURE USED TO ESTIMATE THE NUMBER OF Fifth--the procedure used to estimate the number of undocumented immigrants in the 1980 census. We did this by estimating the number of legal aliens in the country using data from the Alien Registration System of the Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS). Then we compared that number with an estimate of the total number of aliens (undifferentiated as to legal and undocumented) derived from the census sample questions on citizenship and country of birth. We interpreted the difference between the total number of aliens counted in the census and the estimated number of legal aliens in the country at census time as an estimate of undocumented immigrants included in the 1980 census. Both the INS and census data required a number of modifications and adjustments designed to correct for known deficiencies in the data. Not all possible deficiencies could be corrected. Thus, the estimates still are limited by potential errors. THE NUMBER OF UNDOCUMENTED IMMIGRANTS THE CENSUS BUREAU Sixth--the number of undocumented immigrants we expect to count in 1990. 5 We have not made any predictions, estimates, calculations, tabulations or projections of the total number of undocumented immigrants who will be counted in the 1990 census. ALLOWANCE FOR NET GROWTH IN UNDOCUMENTED IMMIGRANT POPULATION IN Seventh--allowance for net growth in undocumented immigrant population in current population estimates. Prior to January 1986, our postcensal population estimates included no allowance for one of the components of population change--net growth in the number of undocumented immigrants in the country. To improve our estimates, we began in January 1986 to allow for estimated net annual undocumented immigration of 200,000 for every year since 1980. We derived this estimate, in part, by using a supplement to the April 1983 PROBLEMS IN CONDUCTING THE 1990 CENSUS IF REQUIRED TO EXCLUDE Eighth--problems in conducting the 1990 census if required to exclude undocumented immigrants. |