VOL. VII. JANUARY 31, 1839. EDMUND RUFFIN, EDITOR AND PROPRIETOR. ON THE CULTIVATION OF CORN. Read before the Agricultural Society of Fredericksburg, and ordered to be published in the Farmers' Register. The corn crop is so important to the tide water portion of Virginia, that observations upon its culture, however trite or desultory, can hardly fail to be productive of some benefit. The following are offered as the rusult of twenty years' experience, by one who has been a corn-grower for that time, and probably as successful as most of the farmers who live in the same section of country, and own similar land. No. 1. preserve as much as possible, the natural surface. In the tide-water district, the corn crop is so decidedly superior, that it cannot be sacrificed to any other crop. The five-feet bedding exposes the land more effectually to the action of frost in winter, and of the sun and winds in spring. The crop can therefore be planted earlier, comes up and grows off more rapidly, sooner matures, and has a better chance to escape our frequent and severe droughts. Although good crops are made by earlier and later planting, the proper time for that operation is certainly the month of April; in the first half of the month, if the soil be sandy, in the latter half, if it be stiff. The modes of planting are various; but after trying most or all, I have given the preference to the plan of opening the beds longitudinally, with a single furrow of a Some exceptions to this practice will occur to every one. Very rough portions of the field must of necessity be covered with the hoe, and manured land cannot receive the longitudinal furrow without turning up a large part of the manure. The field intended for corn should be ploughed up as early as possible. My usual practice is, to give the team a week's rest after the fall weeding is finished, then to start as many ploughs as I can, and to keep them at work whenever the wea-plough, drawn by one horse, as deep as he can ther will permit. I am thus enabled to get easily do it, dropping the grain by a line marked at through with the wet and stiff land by Christmas, the intended distances, each planter following his and to finish the residue of the field early in the mark and covering with his foot. I prefer this spring. If wet land is postponed until the spring, method, because a horse going along the beds will it is often so late in drying, that the farmer becomes do nearly twice as much work as when he crosses impatient, ploughs it out of order, injures the them, because every hand, (the two excepted who land and fails in the crop. As the ploughing ad- carry the line,) is a planter instead of being merely vances, the small artificial drains to be found in a dropper, because idlers are compelled to keep up most large fields should be well opened. If they with the industrious hands, because all are immeare permitted to remain filled up with the earth diately under the eye of the overseer, because the thrown into them by the plough, small ponds of grain is rarely covered too deep, as is often done water, soaking through and injuring the land con- by the hoe, and because fewer clode are left over siderably beyond their limite, will be formed dur-it, the foot either pulverizing or rolling them off. ing the winter; which spots, being insufficiently dried when planted, will put forth sickly, unthrifty plants, and yield a very inadequate return. The depth of the furrow, must depend upon the charater of the soil. I believe the proper limits to be from three to six inches, having been satisfied from ex- Experience has convinced me of the propriety perience, that deeper ploughing sometimes injures of leaving at least two stalks to the hill. One the land, and always the team, without any be- half the labor of planting and thinning is saved, nefit to the crop. A two-horse plough is fully and, as the plough and cultivator can work across adequate to such work, is less expensive, more the beds, the team can perform much of the work easily managed by the ploughman, and less wor-usually done with the hoe. I believe the crop of rying to the team, than a larger one. Some other benefits resulting from this early ploughing, are, that the heavy work is done when the weather is cool and the days short, the plough horses are easily kept in good order, the land is loose and friable in the spring, and the farmer gets sufficiently advanced to be prepared for untoward occurrences and emergencies. This last advantage applies to all agricultural operations, and is so highly estimated, that I am not aware of any thing of more constant application or greater value to the farmer, than to admonish him to be beforehand with his work. If he starts or gets behindhand, he keeps so, and every thing, afterwards, is done out of time, or evinces a hurried and slovenly execution. The field is ploughed in five-feet beds. I say this in reference to the corn-crop, and a level surface only. If wheat is the staple, other systems are probably preferable; and when the land is rolling, I have found no means so effectual, not for preventing, but for diminishing the great damage occasioned by heavy rains, as to avoid bedding and to VOL. VII.-1. corn is increased. Any one who will make a fair experiment, will find that corn planted five feet by six, with two stalks in the hill, will withstand the dry hot spells of our summers much better than if planted five by three with a single stalk. Last year, which was not a good one for corn, I made a trial on a large part of my field. The single-stalk corn fired earlier and more throughout than any other part of the crop, not excepting the portions containing many more stalks to the acre; and when stripped off, blade and top showed an evident inferiority. This conviction has induced me to plant thicker than is customary. The usual distance on thin soils of five and a half feet by three, will give 16 square feet to each stalk. I plant such land five by five, with two stalks, giving 25 to the two, or 12 to one. There are of course nearly one-fourth more stalks to the acre; and if, as I believe, each double hill will, in all respects, be at least proportionately equal to each single one, there must be a gain of nearly a fourth in the amount of product. Under these impres sions, I invariably plant my thinnest land, except The kind of corn cultivated, I believe to be of greater importance than is generally supposed. Any Virginian who has travelled northwards, must have observed the difference between their crops and ours. He must have seen that the stalks diminish in size, while the crop, per acre, when changed for experiment, five feet by five, two stalks to the hill. This distance has been diminished on better land to five by four and a half, by four, by three and a half, by three, according to quality, always preserving the double stalks. The observation of the two last years has satisfied me, that whenever I have reduced the narrow dis-obviously increases; and yet ours is notoriously tance to less than four feet, even on the richest the soil and climate for growing corn. I think land, I have lost by it, and has determined me in the difference may be attributed to the kind of corn future to increase the number of stalks in the hills, cultivated, a kind which enables them to plant rather than decrease the distance between them. much thicker than we do. Here, most of us plant When hills of corn are two and a half or three a large gourd-seed corn, shooting up a tall large feet apart, the circulation of air is more impeded stalk, bearing generally one, occasionally two ears, than if they were of double that distance; and an and not admitting thick planting. There, the artificial heat is thus produced far exceeding the stalk is low, is planted very thick, and bears two, common temperature. This may be a reason for three, and four small flinty ears. Not farther north the superiority of the double to the single stalk than Pennsylvania, I have seen corn planted five planting. I have little hesitation in asserting, feet by four, with three and four stalks to the hill. that during the last summer, our crops of corn Counting three stalks at this distance, and allowsustained fully as much injury from the long spelling three ears to each, any given space, there, will of excessive heat, as from want of rain. In my yield seven or eight ears to our one; small ears neighborhood, the only long interval without good certainly, but still, large enough to account for the rains, was one of a month, between the 11th of great superiority in the product per acre. I comJuly and 10th of August and this interval was menced with the old full bred Virginia gourd-seed, slightly relieved by occasional showers. I have, and stuck to it for six or eight years; but finding several times in my life, made very good crops, that, on common land, many stalks were too late with droughts equally long, the corn retaining its in curing, or did not ear at all, determined to color throughout. On the 11th of July, a very change my seed. My next variety was the "Talheavy rain fell, and yet within two weeks the crop iaferro white flint." This sort is touched with the was fired. This must have been owing to the gourd-seed, but is superior to it in having a smallextraordinary heat of the weather, and not at that er stalk, ripening earlier, bearing more ears, and a time to drought. harder and heavier grain. I then tried what is As soon as the corn begins to come up, I start called the "Alsop corn," resembling the Taliaferas many single horse ploughs as I mean to work, ro in other respects, but somewhat smaller in running one furrow on each side of the row, along stalk, and superior in number of ears, often prothe beds, and with the bar to the hill. They are ducing two, three, and sometimes a greater numstarted thus early, to diminish the depredations of ber of ears. This corn I still plant. I made one the feathered tribe, as well as in accordance with experiment with the Maryland twin corn, and the rule of keeping ahead. Crows and black- thought it as prolific as the Alsop; but the grain birds may be seen travelling along the newly being lighter, and the stalk taller, it was abandonmade furrows, dividing their attacks between the ed. Last winter I purchased in Washington a worms and insects turned up, and the young corn small quantity of "Baden" corn, and planted with plants, but giving the preference to the former. it a rich lot of about two acres. It came up and Having gone over the field, a cultivator is then grew off well, was the tallest corn I ever saw, used, going in the opposite direction, or across the averaged five or six shoots to the stalk, and probeds, twice in a row if the distance between the mised at one time to make a great crop. But it hills is as much as five feet, and once if less. The suffered nearly twice as much as the rest of my hoe follows rapidly, as nothing need be touched, corn, from the heat or the drought of the summer, but a small space around the hill. Much of the and was broken off by a wind in August, which thinning is done in weather too wet for ploughing did very little injury to the rest of the crop. It did or hoeing, and the residue during the progress of not of course, fill or ripen well, and I fed it to the first hoeing. The next operations are, to return hogs. But as it certainly had more shoots than the earth, or greater part of it to the corn with the any corn I ever saw, I have saved a small portion single plough, and again to follow slightly and ra- to plant again. Its great fault is, its extraordinapidly with the hoe. This process is completed by ry height. If it can be brought down to a proper harvest, and although it requires two hoeings, standard, retaining its great number of shoots, it they are both so slight as not to exceed, in manual will probably turn out to be a very prolific variety. labor, what is necessaryfor the single one, when It will readily be seen that I consider thicker one only is given. If the land has been well bro-planting than common, essential in making heavy ken up, I prefer these frequent, rapid, and slight workings, to fewer but deeper ones. During harvest, the plough finishes the narrow slip left in many of the rows, and the cultivation may be considered as over, so far as the crop of corn is concerned. A very shallow working afterwards, with the skimmer, or cultivator, and hoe, is usual; but rather designed to aid the seeding of wheat, than to benefit the corn, unless the latter is unusually backward. This year I could perceive no difference between that portion of my crop which received this past-harvest-culture, and that which did not. crops of corn per acre. But think planting with a large kind is out of the question. At the same time, it must be borne in mind, that as we increase the number, we diminish the size of the ears, and add to the labor of gathering and husking. Every judicious farmer will decide, from experience, how far he can carry this process; and will stop as soon as he begins to doubt whether he is paid for his additional labor. Dismissing all speculation on this point, I believe we may safely plant any small variety of corn at the rate of one stalk to every ten square feet on tolerable land, which would give about 4360 stalks, and from six | Since the first of January, our mules have been to ten barrels of grain to the acre. I will only fed exclusively on this grain. For the first few add in conclusion, that although I have frequently months, it was ground and mixed with chop; but been deterred by the influence which custom exer- the stoppage of the mills, from the drought, rencises over the mind of every one, from planting dered this mode of feeding impracticable, after corn as thick as I was inclined to, I have, in no the middle of July or first of August; since which one instance, exceeded the usual rate, without time, we have fed on the grain, unground, moistenadding to the crop. ing it with water, a few hours beforehand, to soften and cause it to swell and expand. The mules seemed as fond of it as of any orher food-have continued throughout in excellent order, and our manager informs us, they have worked with as Caroline county, Va. WM. P. TAYLOR. ON THE CULTIVATION, PRODUCT, AND USES much spirit and as briskly, as any which he has OF BROOM-CORN. Read before the Agricultural Society of Fredericksburg, and ordered to be published in the Farmers' Register. ever had the management of. I fed my cow, also, on this grain, for some weeks, during which, there was a sensible increase of the quantity of milk, beyond what she yielded when fed on bran and chop, the usual food of our cows in town. In preparing it for the cow, boiling water was poured over it, and it was kept well covered in a close vessel, until the grain expanded and became soft. In this state she ate it with great avidity. The establishment of a broom factory, in the town of Fredericksburg, may probably render the culture of the broom-corn an object of some importance to the farmers in the vicinity. Thus far, we have had little or no practical knowledge of the extent of the crop which may be gathered from any specific quantity of land, or of the value Ground, and properly prepared, it has been of the product. Ten or twelve acres have been used as a substitute for corn-bread, by several incultivated by Mr. C. H. Hunt and myself, the dividuals in our neighborhood, who speak very present year; but we have made no estimate as favorably of it. Its appearance, when cooked, is to the amount per acre, either of the brush, by dark red, very similar to rye bread, and like it, it which is meant the broom part, deprived of the contains a considerable portion of mucilage and grain, with about six inches of the stalk, or of the vegetable gluten, which I have no doubt renders grain. Nor, had we procured this information, it highly nutritious. Deprived of its husk, which could it have been considered a fair experiment, or gives it the dark color, by a process similar to that a safe guide, the land being thin and a good deal employed in cleaning rice and barley, it will proexhausted, and the season unusually dry and un-bably become an agreeable and healthy article of propitious. We design, the next year, to mea-diet, and a valuable substitute for Indian corn, sure our land, and make a careful and complete which it very nearly approximates in taste. experiment, the result of which shall be laid before the society. From information obtained from Connecticut, where this article is extensively cultivated, it appears that the product per acre ranges WM. BROWNE. From the Virginia Herald. from 200 to 1200 pounds of the brush, and from EXTRACTS FROM THE ADDRESS TO THE AGRI CULTURAL SOCIETY OF FREDERICKSBURG. By James M. Garnett, President. 20 to 120 bushels of grain-ten bushels of grain being considered a fair estimate for every 100 pounds of brush. It is seldom that the quantity of brush falls below 400 pounds, and not offen that it reaches to 1200 pounds-perhaps a fair average would be, 600 pounds brush, and 60 bush- A young friend of mine, whose word cannot be els of grain. The grain is considered at least doubted, has lately communicated to me a fact in equal to oats for horses and cattle, and superior to regard to this most invaluable plant, which fact is buck-wheat for hogs. It is not known what will certainly new to me, a corn planter of fifty years be a fair average price for the brush in our mark-standing, and I suspect to most others of my brethet. The manafactory is yet in its infancy, and the ren; although we surely ought to know, by this proprietors have not ascertained what price the time, every important particular relative to its namarket for their brooms will justify them in giving ture, since Indian corn has been our chief staple for the brush. But suppose the price of brush, in the largest portion of our state, ever since its properly cured, of a bright and lively color, to be first settlement by emigrants from the old "fatherfive cents per pound, and the quantity produced to land." This fact is, that the full grown stalks be 200 pounds below the New England average, have, at least three or four roots, larger than the say 400 pounds per acre, the producer would get surface roots, which penetrate into the earth, al$20 for his crop, equal to five barrels of corn, at $4 most perpendicularly, to the depth of a foot or per barrel, and 40 bushels of grain, in every res- more my friend traced them fully twelve inches pect equal to oats, for all purposes for which they by actual measurement. Those roots, from the are used on a farm. It was not my intention, direction in which they grow, can rarely, if ever, however, in making this communication, to enter be broken by any implement yet used in corn into any speculations as to the probable value of culture; and this fact seems to afford a satisfactory this crop, or to present estimates founded on data solution of another fact, which heretofore has so imperfect and uncertain, but merely to state our never been accounted for, satisfactorily. It is, actual experience, as limited as it is, of the value that corn should, most manifestly, be benefited of the grain. We work mules altogether. Last by every working-during its growth, if the land year, we cultivated a few acres in broom-corn, be in a proper state-that is, neither too wet, nor from which we obtained over 100 bushels of grain. I too dry; although it is equally certain, that many state any facts whatever upon which a cornplanter, conscious of his own ignorance and anxious to remove it, could confidently and safely rely. Here then are no less than three or four highly important matters relative to corn culture, of which all the corn-makers with whom I have ever conversed, are still so far ignorant, that no uniform and certain practice for similar soils and situations, can be adopted on their authority. As to depth, it is guess-work with all, and it will be found to vary several inches; while the distances in planting vary so much, even among the most experienced corn-planters, that 'tis manifest they act more from mere conjectural belief than any thing else. Much difference of practice yet exists in regard to all the points I have stated, which could not possibly be the case, if a sufficient number of experiments had been fully and fairly made to settle which method was best in each case. This surely is well worth attempting—at least by all who cannot rest self-satisfied, that our present stock of knowledge is full and complete, which I sincerely hope is not the case with a single member of our society-since the very basis-the great object of its formation-was mutual instruction. of the lateral and surface roots-whose spongioles | ries-showing that each had formed some opinion `contribute to feed the stalks and grain, must, ine--satisfactory perhaps to himself; but I may venvitably, be cut by any implement ever yet used in ture to affirm, without fear of contradiction, that its cultivation. True it is, that some cut more roots not a solitary man of the whole would be able to than others; but to claim for any, that they cut no roots at all, is a pretension which none can be expected to believe who ever had any experience in the culture of corn. Now, if the health and vigor of the corn plants depended solely, or even chiefly, on the spongioles at the extremities of the surface-roots, each working, after these roots have spread nearly or quite across the beds-which they do before any one ceases to work them-every working then given, would do much injury instead of good. Unless, indeed, (as I formerly suggested,) the cutting process tended to multiply spongioles at the ends of the cut roots next the stalks, more than sufficient to compensate for the loss of the extreme feeders. If this conjecture be insulficient to explain the undeniable fact, that growing corn is much benefited by every working, when the land is neither too wet nor too dry, may we not consider the difficulty solved by the discovery that the largest roots, which probably produce the most spongioles, grow in a direction which saves them ftom ever being cut, unless by accident? But the dew roots (as some call them,) which grow around the first joints of the stalks, and are very rarely cut, likewise act as feeders; although this, I believe, is not the common opinion. Those persons, however, who doubt, may easily satisfy themselves by tracing the longest of these roots to their extremities below the surface; for they will there find small fibres with their spongioles; precisely similar to those surface roots which are generally supposed to be the only sources of food to their parent plants. The scripture injunction "seek and ye shall find," is eminently true, not only of spiritual knowledge, but of every species which human beings are capable of attaining, and to no class of mankind is the frequent repetition of this most momentous truth more necessary than to ours; for the worst of our besetting sins is an overweening confidence in our knowledge of husbandry, I cannot dismiss this highly important subject and the consequent neglect of all the means eswithout earnestly endeavoring to impress upon sential to its improvement. Our secluded country the minds of all our brethren, the absolute neces-lives, if long continued without interruption, serve sity of continuing to make experiments, and many only to cherish and confirm this self conceit, almore than any of us have yet made, if we would most beyond all hopes of cure. The symptom become thoroughly acquainted with the nature which usually indicates this disease in its most inand best management of the corn plant. That veterate state is, when the infected person is we are yet ignorant of many essentials to its most found, whenever an opportunity offers, constantperfect culture and greatest production, is mani-ly and most complacently, talking about "his mefest to all but those obstinate, self-conceited block-thods, his system.' When the disorder appears heads who have persuaded themselves that they in this aggravated form, a recovery very rarely have reached the highest point of attainable know- occurs, for there are only two modes of cure, and ledge on both points; and who are ready to reply both of doubtful efficacy. The first is, to persuade to all attempts at instructing them-especially if in print "Oh! we know all about corn; don't tell us any thing, we never read books! no, not we!" But, to prove their ignorance, as well as our own, I need only ask the following questions. the sufferer, if practicable, to go a little from home and examine other men's methods and systems; for he will then surely find either that his, upon which he has prided himself so much, as sole discoverer and practitioner, have really nothing new in Who has ever made any experiments sufficient- them, or that they are much inferior to the methods ly numerous and accurate to ascertain the best and systems of many other persons of his own depth and distance for planting corn in the differ- profession. The second remedy is, to tempt him ent soils most common among us, with a view to to read (provided he can,) a few scraps or whole obtain the greatest product that each soil can be articles in print, about husbandry. If well semade to yield? Yet, upon these two circum-lected, they may possibly coax him on to peruse a stances, depth and distance, we are all certain, pamphlet or book or two on the same subject, that the quantity of grain produced, must most when he will discover that the great bug-bear materially depend? Again, who has ascertained, which he has always despised so much under the or even attempted it, by any trials approaching to name of book-farming, is, in reality, neither more certainty of results, whether it is best to cultivate nor less than a well authenticated record of the high and dry corn land on ridges, or on a level best practices in every branch of husbandry, from surface? Again, who among us can say, from ac- the earliest ages to the present day. It is true tual and accurate comparison, whether it is best to that he would find some mere speculations,—some cross-plough, or to plough but one way? All, useless trash; but what books, except the bible, probably, would give some answer to these inqui- | were ever yet exempt from these defects? Yet even the most illiterate believe books to be absolutely that we remain ignorant of the vast extent to necessary to the perfection of every honest trade, which legislative enactments have benefited agprofession and calling, under the sun. Strange riculture in other countries, and might advance then, most strange would it be, if that calling, our own, if we would only exert over them that upon whose prosperity even human existence it-influence, that control, which our constitution has self depends, should be the only one which can secured to us. Should we much longer neglect to prosper without books! The vainest fool that do so, all argument, all persuasion, used for any ever lived, if he were not an absolute idiot, would such purpose, will be as entirely thrown away, not fail to admit this, provided you could prevail as an attempt to show how a dead man's life on him to think long enough to form an opinion. might have been saved had a certain nostrum How shameful-how disgraceful then is it, that been administered while he was alive. Unless any of our fraternity who are certainly not fools, we mean "to give up the ship," in other words, should ever be found among the idiotic declaimers to abandon our good old mother, Virginia, to her against the study of books on agriculture! This aboriginal inhabitants, the bears and wolves of study would put him in possession of one fact, the forest, and flee to "the far west," we must which of itself should suffice to animate his pro- insist upon the establishment at public expense of fessional exertions for the rest of his life. It is, a board of agriculture, or an agricultural school, that all the greatest benefactors of mankind have or an agricultural survey of the state, or all three been either practical agriculturists, or the devoted together. One or all of these means are indisfriends thereof-that they have deemed agricul- pensably necessary, if we would maintain among ture not only an art but a science, to the perfection our sister states that relative rank and importance of which the study of books is indispensable; and to which our soil, climate, natural resources and moreover, that to the end of time, it will always population, so justly entitle us. fall so far short of perfection, as to leave ample There is another of your improvements which room for constant improvement, even to the wisest deserves a special notice, on account of the highand most experienced of our profession. To ly important purpose, in a national view, to which strive therefore with might and main after this it is designed to contribute; I mean the establishimprovement, and with a zeal and perseverance ment of the silk-culture in the United States. proportioned to its importance, should be deemed This improvement is the handsome building latethe indispensable duty of every man who pre-ly erected for a cocoonery. Like others destined sumes to call himself a friend to the great, for a similar object, which are now preparing in the vital cause, of agriculture. All who give various parts of our country, this house illustrates it only lip service should be ranked amongst the existence of a moral phenomenon, for which its worst enemies, since the tongue alone is no one, I believe, has ever yet been able to acworse than nothing, unless the heart, the hand, count. It is the liability of our minds as well as and the purse, unite in its promotion: nay more, our bodies to certain untraceable diseases to which unless this union, in the case of us Virginians, the common name of epidemics has been given. should so work as to obtain legislative aid to our Such formerly in Holland, was the disease called cause. But no man in his senses can hope it, as "the tulip mania," which, when at its height, our legislatures are now constituted, if he judges caused single roots to sell from 2,000 to 5,500 by their undeviating neglect of agriculture, from guilders; a sum, that in our currency, would exthe end of our revolutionary war to the present ceed two thousand dollars. And such, within our time; although strange to say, a large majority of own times, was, "the merino mania" in these them have always been agriculturists! Of this United States, with another of more recent date, there can be but one even probable explanation; that shall be nameless. From the sheep mania it is, that they must believe party politics to be and its successor, I luckily escaped, by using much more deserving of their patronage than great precaution to keep out of the way. But I agriculture. To cure them of this hallucination plead guilty to a voluntary exposure to what I there is only one remedy, and that, thank God, will take the liberty to call the "multicaulis fever" is still in our power, although there is some doubt a disease which threatens to spread vastly more whether we shall all be sufficiently alive to our than did the merino mania; because mulberry own interest, to apply it. This remedy is, either bushes being far more divisible than sheep, and of to elect no more representatives without clear, un-course much lower in price, many more persons equivocal pledges to do something for agriculture, can afford to buy: add to which a thousand or two or to instruct all who will not give such pledges, per cent. profit, seems to be confidently expected that they must do something, or never again ex- from each mulberry investment, whereas the mepect our suffrages. Why this course has not rino purchasers, I believe, rarely anticipated much been pursued, after so many fruitless and deeply more than one or two hundred per cent. mortifying applications to our legislatures, is to me utterly inexplicable, but upon the supposition that the majority of us are stone blind to the obvious means of relief; or that those who can see them and are fully aware of all their momentous bearings, want the courage and perseverance to combat that fearful and most formidable obstacle to improvements of every kind, which consists in a union of ignorance and asinine indifference relative to our best interests. We agriculturists may and often do live so comfortably at home, by industry and frugality, almost in spite of government neglect, nay even of government hostility, * * But to be serious: I verily believe that although this multicaulis business will certainly humbug a multitude of those ever sanguine people who calculate on amassing enormous fortunes by it, yet that it may prove highly profitable to all who will be prudent enough to sell at the market price, whatever it may be, immediately they have any trees or cuttings to dispose of. That this price will and inevitably must be much less 12 months hence, I think absolutely certain, notwithstanding all the prophecies you have been flattered with to the contrary. My reasons for this opinion are, that |