Exchange Rate EconomicsCambridge University Press, 28/09/1995 - 275 páginas This book describes and evaluates the literature on exchange rate economics. It provides a wide-ranging survey, with background on the history of international monetary regimes and the institutional characteristics of foreign exchange markets, an overview of the development of conceptual and empirical models of exchange rate behavior, and perspectives on the key issues that policymakers confront in deciding whether, and how, to try to stabilize exchange rates. The treatment of most topics is reasonably compact, with extensive references to the literature for those desiring to pursue individual topics further. The level of exposition is relatively easy to comprehend; the historical and institutional material (part I) and the discussion of policy issues (part III) contain no equations or technical notation, while the chapters on models of exchange rate behavior (part II) are written at a level intelligible to first-year graduate students or advanced undergraduates. The book will enlighten both students and policymakers, and should also serve as a valuable reference for many research economists. |
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Índice
Introduction | 1 |
Shortterm variability of keycurrency exchange rates 1957 94 percentage change from previous month | 2 |
Keycurrency exchange rates 197494 January 1974100 | 2 |
Foreign exchange markets and the marketability of money | 2 |
What makes money marketable? | 2 |
Restrictions on the convertibility of money | 14 |
The modern foreign exchange market | 15 |
Exchange rate determination the myopic perspective | 21 |
Concluding perspectives | 115 |
News revisions in expectations and exchange rate dynamics | 117 |
A continuoustime monetary model with sticky prices | 118 |
The Dornbusch model of overshooting | 123 |
A discretetime framework | 124 |
The concept of longrun equilibrium and the role of the current | 127 |
The target zone framework | 128 |
Empirical estimates of structural exchange rate models | 132 |
Exchange rate arrangements and international monetary regimes | 24 |
Alternative exchange rate arrangements | 25 |
Shortterm variability of selected exchange rates March 1979December 1994 percentage change from previous month | 27 |
Selected exchange rates March 1979December 1994 March 1979 100 | 29 |
The international gold standard regime 18801914 | 30 |
The wartime and interwar regimes | 36 |
The Bretton Woods system 194671 | 44 |
Exchange rates and national price levels | 57 |
The purchasing power parity hypothesis | 58 |
Arguments against PPP | 60 |
Direct evidence | 63 |
Real exchange rates 1970941970100 | 64 |
Variability of nominal and real exchange rates 195794 percentage change from previous quarter | 68 |
Implications for macroeconomic doctrine | 69 |
Normative applications of PPP | 70 |
Concluding perspectives | 71 |
Exchange rates and interest rates | 74 |
The interest rate parity hypothesis | 75 |
Empirical evidence on covered interest parity | 78 |
Interest differentials as predictors of exchange rate changes | 80 |
Possible explanations of prediction bias | 83 |
Inferences from survey data | 87 |
Concluding perspectives | 88 |
Exchange rates and the balance of payments | 90 |
Early models of the current account | 91 |
The elasticities approach | 93 |
Early models of stabilization policy for the open economy | 96 |
The Swan diagram | 97 |
The Mundell diagram | 99 |
Asset equilibrium models of the balance of payments | 102 |
The portfoliobalance framework | 113 |
Reducedform specifications | 133 |
Outofsample prediction accuracy | 137 |
Empirical evidence on portfoliobalance models and the effectiveness of sterilized intervention | 140 |
Largescale macroeconometric models | 144 |
New perspectives from optimizing models of realignments under fixed exchange rates | 148 |
The conceptual framework an example | 152 |
Analysis of the example | 157 |
Concluding perspectives | 163 |
Appendix | 166 |
New directions for conceptual models of flexible exchange rates | 168 |
Models with irrationality or limited information | 179 |
Concluding perspectives | 182 |
The choice of exchange rate arrangements | 187 |
Fixed versus flexible rates perspectives around 1960 | 189 |
Relevant structural characteristics | 191 |
Other considerations | 195 |
The evolution of European exchange arrangements | 200 |
Inflation convergence and exchange rate stability for the original ERM members 197994 | 203 |
The nature of speculative capital flows perspectives today | 205 |
Concluding perspectives | 212 |
Policyoriented perspectives on exchange rate stability | 216 |
The role of fiscal and monetary discipline | 217 |
The pros and cons of capital controls | 218 |
The capital inflows problem | 223 |
The scope for international policy cooperation | 227 |
Concluding perspectives | 233 |
237 | |
267 | |
272 | |
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Palavras e frases frequentes
analysis asset balance of payments behavior of exchange Bretton Woods system capital controls capital flows capital mobility central bank conceptual current account Deutsche mark devaluation developments dollar domestic Dornbusch economists effects Eichengreen equilibrium European exchange rate arrangements exchange rate expectations exchange rate regime exchange rate stability exchange rate system external balance fixed exchange rate flexible exchange rates fluctuation foreign currency foreign exchange market framework Frenkel gold standard home-currency implies inflation inflows interest differential interest rates international capital International Monetary Fund intertemporal Isard Journal Kenen Krugman literature long-run macroeconomic market participants Meese and Rogoff models of exchange monetary model monetary policy Mundell Mussa national price levels nominal exchange rate Obstfeld optimal output percent policy authorities policymakers portfolio price indices provides rational expectations real exchange rates realignment expectations reflected relative price reserves risk premium shocks short-term spot exchange rate sterilized intervention target zone trade transactions United variables
Passagens conhecidas
Página 237 - Ralph C. Bryant, David A. Currie, Jacob A. Frenkel, Paul R. Masson, and Richard Portes.
Referências a este livro
Changes in Exchange Rates in Rapidly Developing Countries: Theory, Practice ... Takatoshi Ito,Anne O. Krueger Pré-visualização limitada - 2007 |
International Financial Markets as Sources of Crises Or Discipline: The Too ... Thomas D. Willett Visualização de excertos - 2000 |