Maybe you'll let me stay till the sodger is identified, your honour?'

"That will not take long, I presume,' said I, it's an easy matter.'

"The first thing McGosh did next morn- "An aisy matter, is it?' responded ing was to go the magistrate and swear in- Tim, brightening up all of a sudden; formations against two soldiers, unknown,Divil a greater poser McGosh ever had in who had violently assaulted him inside the his life than that same identification' gates the night before. "What do you mean?' said I.

"Here was a nice business, thought I to myself, when I read a letter brought me by a policeman, and heard his version of the affair.

"It's a very serious charge,' said I; 'go back and say that I shall use every effort to bring the men to justice - I can't say more. I'll see the magistrate at once and hear what Mr. McGosh has to say. The men shall be paraded for identification, and strict inquiry made.'

"Tim of course, would know all about the business, to a dead certainty; if, indeed, he was not actually one of the actors in it. I made a firm and determined resolution to dismiss him forthwith. Things were becoming too serious, and I felt that I was really placing myself in jeopardy by an overweening affection for the fellow. What I should do without him I did not allow myself to inquire, knowing, from previous experience, what the result would be if I temporized. I would not even give myself time to cool. I was, so to speak, in a white heat, and resolved to strike while I was hot.

"He came before me, looking very sheepish-the very picture of meekness and humility, as he always did, when he saw that I was inclined to be angry.

"I mane that I'll howld on in your service, Captain, awhile yet.'

"I can't and won't allow any humbugging in this matter,' said I; once for all, let me tell you that he must be punished, and you, too, I take it.'

"Divil a matter about me,' responded Tim; but the sodger is all right, take my word. I never told you a lie.'

"All right!' I exclaimed, growing wrath. 'What do you mean? Do you mean to say that he is gone - that he has deserted?"

"Faix, he didn't, sir; for he never was there at all.

"I looked at him in bewildered astonishment.

"Sure, your honor,' said he, growing confidential, and speaking with bated breath, SURE WASN'T IT WAN OF THE POPE'S PAUPERS, OUT OF THE WORKHOUSE, I HAD IN THE SINTRY BOX!'

"I burst into an immoderate fit of laughter as the truth dawned upon me. I saw my way out of the difficulty, and entered fully into the joke. Of course, identification was out of the question. The uniform of a Carrigahinch pauper, when he had his big overcoat and round skull-cap on, would pass off very well to the non-military eye "What do you think of yourself now?'-particularly when seen under such cirI exclaimed, after I had explained all I cumstances, and in the dark. knew; this is a pretty kettle-o'-fish. Of course, it was all your doing. It was you who got me into it.'

"Tim had chosen a 'good Catholic' (as he said), one on whom he could rely as not being very friendly to McGosh (there were plenty such in the workhouse); and, arming him with the handle of a stable-fork, posted him at the gate.

"At my examination I stated that I had not posted a sentry at this gate at all. My written orders to Sergeant Ski aner

by the love of play, might be expected to distinguish between the chances proper to recognize the futility of all attempts to an- the game, and those depending on the luck ticipate the results of chance combinations. of the player. Proceeding to consider the It is, however, but too well known that the chances proper to the game itself, our reverse is the case. The more familiar a friendly cheat summons them all up in two man becomes with the multitude of such rules. First: " Though chance can bring combinations, the more confidently he be- into the game all possible combinations, lieves in the possibility of foretelling,- there are, nevertheless, certain limits at not, indeed, any special event, but the gen- which it seems to stop: such, for instance, eral run of several approaching events. as a certain number turning up ten times There has never been a successful gambler in succession at roulette; this is possible, who has not believed that his success (tem- but it has never happened." Secondly: porary though such success ever is, where "In a game of chance, the oftener the same games of pure chance are concerned) has combination has occurred in succession, been the result of skilful conduct on his the nearer we are to the certainty that it own part; and there has never been a ruined will not recur at the next cast or turn up. gambler (though ruined gamblers are to be This is the most elementary of the theories counted by thousands) who has not be- on probabilities; it is termed the maturity lieved that when ruin overtook him he was of the chances" (and he might have added on the very point of mastering the secret that the belief in this elementary theory of success. It is this fatal confidence which had ruined thousands). "Hence," he progives to gambling its power of fascinating ceeds, "a player must come to the table the lucky as well as the unlucky. The win- not only ‘in luck,' but he must not risk his ner continues to tempt fortune, believing money except at the instant prescribed by all the while that he is exerting some spe- the rules of the maturity of the chances." cial aptitude for games of chance, until Then follow the precepts for personal conthe inevitable change of luck arrives; and duct:-"For gaming prefer roulette, bethereafter he continues to play because he cause it presents several ways of staking believes that his luck has only deserted your money which permits the study of him for a time, and must presently return. several. A player should approach the The unlucky gambler, on the contrary, re-gaming-table perfectly calm and coolgards his losses as sacrifices to ensure the just as a merchant or tradesman in treaty ultimate success of his "system," and even about any affair. If he gets into a passion when he has lost his all, continues firm in it is all over with prudence, all over with the belief that had he had more money to good luck - for the demon of bad luck sacrifice he could have bound fortune to his invariably pursues a passionate player. side for ever. Every man who finds a pleasure in playing We propose to consider some of the runs the risk of losing.* A prudent player, most common gambling superstitions, before undertaking anything, should put noting, at the same time, that like super- himself to the test to discover if he is in stitions prevail respecting chance events vein' or in luck. In all doubt he should (or what is called fortune) even among | abstain. There are several persons who those who never gamble. are constantly pursued by bad luck : to such

Houdin, in his interesting book, Les Tri-I say - never play. Stubbornness at play cheries des Grecs devoilées, has given some is ruin. Remember that Fortune does not amusing instances of the fruits of long gam-like people to be overjoyed at her favours, bling experience. "They are presented," and that she prepares bitter deceptions for says Steinmetz, from whose work, The Gaming-Table, we quote them, "as the axioms of a professional gambler and cheat." Thus we might expect that, however unsatisfactory to men of honest mind, they would at least savour of a certain sort of wisdom. Yet these axioms, the fruit of long study directed by self-interest, are all utterly untrustworthy.

"Every game of chance," says this authority, "presents two kinds of chances which are very distinct, namely, those relating to the person interested, that is the player; and those inherent in the combinations of the game." That is, we are to

the imprudent who are intoxicated by success. Lastly, before risking your money at play, study your vein' and the different probabilities of the game-termed, as aforesaid, the maturity of the chances."

Before proceeding to exhibit the fallacy of the principles here enunciated - principles which have worked incalculable mischief-it may be well for us to sketch the history of the scamp who enunciated them,

This naive admission would appear, as we shall presently see, to have been the fruit of genuine experience on our gambler's part: it only requires that, for the words "runs the risk," we should read "incurs the certainty," to be incontrovertible.

Taking in their order the gambling superstitions which have been presented above, we have, first of all, to inquire what truth there is in the idea that there are limits beyond which pure chance has no power of introducing peculiar combinations. Let us consider this hypothesis in the light of actual experience. Mr. Steinmetz tells us that, in 1813, a Mr. Ogden wagered 1000 guineas to one that " seven would not be thrown with a pair of dice ten successive times. The wager was accepted (though it was egregiously unfair) and strange to say his opponent threw "seven " nine times running. At this point Mr. Ogden offered 470 guineas to be off the bet. But his opponent declined (though the price offered was far beyond the real value of his chance). He cast yet once more, and threw "nine," so that Mr. Ogden won his guinea.

so far, at least, as his gambling successes the non-persistence of favourable conditions are concerned. His first meeting with in their case. Houdin took place at a subscription ball, where he managed to fleece Houdin "and others to a considerable amount, contriving a dexterous escape when detected. Houdin afterwards fell in with him at Spa, where he found the gambler in the greatest poverty, and lent him a small sum - to practise his grand theories." This sum the gambler lost, and Houdin advised him "to take up a less dangerous occupation." It was on this occasion, it would seem, that the gambler revealed to Houdin the particulars recorded in his book. "A year afterwards Houdin unexpectedly fell in with him again; but this time the fellow was transformed into what is called a 'demi-millionaire,' having succeeded to a large fortune on the death of his brother, who died intestate. According to Houdin, the following was the man's declaration at the auspicious meeting:-'I have,' he said, 'completely renounced gaming; I am rich enough; and care no longer for fortune. And yet,' he added proudly, if I now cared for the thing, how I could break those bloated banks in their pride, and what a glorious vengeance I could take of bad luck and its inflexible agents! But my heart is too full of my happiness to allow the smallest place for the desire of vengeance.'" Three years later he died; and Houdin informs us that he left the whole of his fortune to various charitable institutions, his career after his acquisition of wealth going far to demonstrate the justice of Becky Sharp's theory, that it is easy to be honest on five thousand a year.

It is remarkable that the principles enunciated above are not merely erroneous, but self-contradictory. Yet it is to be noticed that though they are presented as the outcome of a life of gambling experiences, they are in reality entertained by all gamblers, however limited their experience, as well as by many who are only prevented by the lack of opportunity from entering the dangerous path which has led so many to ruin. These contradictory superstitions may be called severally, the gambler's belief in his own good luck, and his faith in the turn of luck. When he is considering his own fortune he does not hesitate to believe that on the whole the Fates will favour him, though this belief implies in reality the persistence of favourable conditions. On the contrary, when he is considering the fortunes of others who are successful in their play against him, he does not doubt that their good luck will presently desert them, that is, he believes in

Now here we have an instance of a most remarkable series of throws, the like of which has never been recorded before or since. Before those throws had been made, it might have been asserted that the throwing of nine successive "sevens" with a pair of dice, was a circumstance which chance could never bring about, for experience was as much against such an event as it would seem to be against the turning up of a certain number ten successive times at roulette. Yet experience now shows that the thing is possible; and if we are to limit the action of chance, we must assert that the throwing of "seven" ten times in succession is an event which will never happen. Yet such a conclusion obviously rests on as unstable a basis as the former, of which experience has disposed. Observe, however, how the two gamblers viewed this very eventuality. Nine successive "sevens" had been thrown; and if there were any truth in the theory that the power of chance was limited, it might have been regarded as all but certain that the next throw would not be a "seven." But a run of bad fortune had so shaken Mr. Ogden's faith in his luck (as well as in the theory of the maturity of the chances) that he was ready to pay 470 guineas (nearly thrice the mathematical value of his opponent's chance) in order to save his en dangered thousand; and so confident was his opponent that the run of luck would continue that he declined this very favourable offer. Experience had in fact shown both the players, that although "sevens" could not be thrown for ever,

66

As an allustration of the application of this theory, we may cite the case of an Englishman, once well known at foreign

yet there was no saying when the throw Closely connected with the theory about would change. Both reasoned probably the range of possibility in the matter of that as an eighth throw had followed chance combinations, is the theory of the seven successive throws of "seven (a maturity of the chances, "the most elewonderful chance), and as a ninth had mentary of the theories on probabilities." followed eight successive throws (an un- It might safely be termed the most misprecedented event), a tenth might well chievous of gambling superstitions. follow the nine (though hitherto no such series of throws had ever been heard of). They were forced as it were by the run of events to reason justly as to the possi- gambling-tables, who had based a system bility of a tenth throw of "seven," nay, on a generalization of this theory. In to exaggerate that possibility into proba- point of fact the theory asserts that when bility; and it appears from the narrative there has been a run in favour of any that the strange series of throws quite particular event, the chances in favour of checked the betting propensities of the the event are reduced, and, therefore, bystanders, and that not one was led to necessarily, the chances in favour of other lay the wager (which according to or- events are increased. Now our Englishdinary gambling superstitions would have man watched the play at the roulette been a safe one) that the tenth throw table for two full hours, carefully noting would not give "seven." the numbers which came up during that We have spoken of the unfairness of time. Then, eschewing those numbers the original wager. It may interest our which had come up oftenest, he staked his readers to know exactly how much should money on those which had come up very have been wagered against a single guinea, seldom or not at all. Here was an infalthat ten "sevens" would not be thrown. lible system, according to "the most eleWith a pair of dice there are thirty-six mentary of the theories of probability." possible throws, and six of these give The tendency of chance-results to right seven" as the total. Thus the chance themselves, so that events equally likely of throwing" seven " is one sixth, and the in the first instance will occur an equal chance of throwing "seven" ten times number of times in the long run, was running is obtained by multiplying six into called into action to enrich our gambler itself ten times, and placing the resulting and to ruin the unlucky bankers. Be it number under unity, to represent the mi- noted, in passing, that events do thus nute fractional chance required. It will right themselves, though this circumstance be found that the number thus obtained does not operate quite as the gambler is 60,166,176, and instead of 1.000 guin- supposed, and cannot be trusted to put a eas, fairness required that 60,466,175 penny into any one's pocket. The system guineas should have been wagered against was tried, however, and instead of reasonone guinea, so enormous are the chances ing respecting its soundness, we may conagainst the occurrence of ten successive tent ourselves with recording the result. throws of "seven." Even against nine On the first day our Englishman won successive throws the fair odds would have more than seven hundred pounds in a been 10,077,595 to one, or about forty single hour. "His exultation was boundthousand guineas to a farthing. But less. He thought he had really discovwhen the nine throws of "seven" had ered the 'philosopher's stone.' Off he been made, the chance of a tenth throw went to his banker's, and transmitted the of "seven was simply one-sixth as at greater portion of his winnings to Lonthe first trial. If there were any truth in don. The next day he played and lost the theory of the "maturity of the fifty pounds; and the following day he chances," the chance of such a throw achieved the same result, and had to would of course be greatly diminished. write to town for remittances. In fine, But even taking the mathematical value in a week he had lost all the money he of the chance, Mr. Ogden need in fairness won at first, with the exception of fifty only have offered a sixth part of 1,001 pounds, which he reserved to take him guineas (the amount of the stakes), or home; and being thoroughly convinced 166 guineas 17s. 6d., to be off his wager. So that his opponent accepted in the first instance an utterly unfair offer, and refused in the second instance a sum exceeding by more than three hundred guineas the real value of his chance.

of the exceeding fickleness of fortune, he has never staked a sixpence since, and does all in his power to dissuade others from playing."*

* From an interesting paper entitled "Le Jeu est fait" i "in Chambers' Journal.