The decrease in this period was over £1,000,000, mostly in gold coin, partly for payment of wages on the works in Ireland undertaken by the government for the relief of the destitute, and partly in consequence of the usual enlargement of the specie circulation which takes place in the fall of the year, when the farmers bring in their new crops. The prospect now is, that an export will take place to the continent to some extent, as well as to the United States. The rise in prices of food may partially create the enhanced demand, as well as the railroad speculations. The French roads appear now to be calling in instalments to a very considerable extent. At the close of October, the Paris northern line advertised a call of $15 per share for the 2d of January, and $10 for the 1st of July. The two calls amount to $6,000,000; and as the shares, as is usual in times of speculation, were in the hands of weak holders who had hypothecated them, they were obliged to sell out. Four large capitalists, viz.: three peers of France and a manufacturer, were forced to sell out. The Lyons road also made a call, and was followed by others, and thirteen roads have made calls for $31,000,000, payable within a year. These large calls on a restricted money market caused a kind of panic, aided by the state of political affairs between England and France. The latter cause was somewhat modified by the fact that the English minister, Lord Normanby, had called upon the Duke and Duchess Montpensier, a fact regarded on 'change as a renewal of a good understanding between the governments. Nevertheless the fall in the value of the shares of nineteen French roads equalled $46,000,000, and was productive of some uneasiness. In a former number we gave a table of the capital authorized in England for the construction of railroads, amounting to the incredible sum of over $1,000,000,000, part of which was in process of expenditure, and had resulted in greatly enhancing the consumption of all necessaries and comforts by the people. It has been a curious result of the payment of money wages to the destitute of Ireland, that the consumption of sugar and tea had increased in those districts very perceptibly. It is doubtless measurably owing to the railroad expenditures that the scarcity of food exists both in western Europe and England. The peo ple have been enabled to consume more of the necessaries of life than usual, as well vegetable food as other dutiable articles, all which have shown so decided an increase; and in considering the probable extent and continuance of the English demand for food, these facts should be borne in mind. As thus, if the present demand arises solely from a short crop, it may be supposed to be quite temporary, and to cease with the return of favorable seasons. If, however, it grows also to a considerable extent out of increased consumption, consequent upon the improved condition of the people, it is not only permanent in its nature, but susceptible of a great increase. There is no doubt but Great Britain by itself, is, in respect of the higher descriptions of grain, well supplied, as compared with the supplies of former years, but also that the consumption of wheat and wheat-flour by those accustomed to consume is much greater than usual; and farther, that owing to the positive deficit of potatoes in Ireland, and of beans and peas, as well as rye, in Europe, that the consumption by those not hitherto accustomed to consume wheat, is large. The quantity of foreign flour taken into consumption in a few months is nearly equal to 2,000,000 barrels; notwithstanding which, the mills all over England are in a state of the utmost activity, the demand for flour good, and the prices of animal food very high. The corn trade of the world, as connected with the English demand, has suffered violent vacillations in a few weeks from a very singular cause, viz.: the most profligate conduct on the part of the London Times newspaper. It is known and admitted that that is the most powerful and influential journal in the world. It enjoys the reputation of being in the confidence of the government, and as such it enjoys an unusual degree of influence, which it exerted for three successive weeks in September and October to promote a panic, through the most exaggerated statements in regard to an alleged approaching famine. These statements materially aided the advance in prices, which reached a level of 63s. 3d. for wheat, for the week ending November 7. Just before the sailing of the American steamer of November 4, however, it suddenly changed its views, and pronounced the alarm in relation to the crops as "wholly without foundation," and also predicted the receipt of some 5,000,000 quarters of foreign grain in England before January, 1847; an exaggeration as great in the opposite direction as had been its previous alarm notes. The effect of this appeared to be, although the statements exhibited too little acquaintance with facts to influence those familiar with the trade, to induce farmers to thresh freely and send to market to avail themselves of the high prices, importers to meet the market freely, and buyers to restrict their purchases in anticipation of the low prices which the great supplies predicted by the Times were to bring about. These combined circumstances created a pause in the market, and influenced the New York and United States markets generally on their arrival here, and prices fell to $5 for flour, but subsequently recovered themselves. The effect of this seemed to be only to hurry the consumption of the English supplies, and will result in a greater demand for foreign supplies towards the close of the year. The French government were also stimulated into large purchases for the consumption of that country by the frightful statements in regard to the prospective wants of England. All the indications are, however, that the demands for United States produce are not of a purely temporary character, arising from the mere failure of the harvest, but are of a permanent character and likely to lead to great results. The greatest drawback at this time on the trade, is the want of adequate tonnage to transport the produce at rates sufficiently cheap to allow of a fair proportion of the sales falling to the share of the farmer. Hence, notwithstanding the great sales that have taken place during the fifteen months ending with December, 1846, the real means of the farmer have not been materially enhanced. The scarcity of food in England and Europe does not now apparently produce its usual effects in diminishing the price or the consumption of cotton; a fact which corroborates the evidence, that the demands for food arise from increased consumption. The supply of cotton for the year ending September 30, was less than the demand; a fact clearly indicated in the diminished stocks, which were as follows: STOCKS OF COTTON, SEPTEMBER 30.-BALES. 826.686 Holland. Antwerp. Hamburg. Trieste. France. England. U. States. Total. 1845...... 15,000 24,000 16,000 30,360 88,900 937,490 68,085 1,179,835 1846...... 6,000 8,000 6,000 22,700 54,000 652,800 77,186 Decrease Increase. 9,000 16,000 10,000 .... .... ... 7,600 84,900 284,690 .... .... 353,149 ...... 9,101 ..... The decrease in stocks is general and large, arising from enhanced deliveries for consumption, which in France and England have been as follows, for ten months, ending October 31: France.. England.. Total bales....... 1844. This increase is equal to 16 per cent, or 256,000 bales, and this at a time when food has been high. Prices have felt this state of affairs, and are higher than for three years, being at Liverpool as follows: CURRENT PRICES, NOVEMBER 18, WITH THOSE OF 1845 AND 1844. These prices average 20 per cent higher than last year, when they were slightly in advance of those current at the same time in 1844. The quantity exported last year was 1,666,792 bales, or 666,716,800 pounds, worth the price of fair New Orleans in November, or an average of $66,842,000. The crop of this year will afford but a less quantity for export, and if estimated at 1,500,000 bales, will, at the price of fair Orleans, at Liverpool, November 13, be worth $72,000,000, or over $5,000,000 more than the crop of last year, under the supposition that no farther advance will take place. The cotton interest will therefore receive no detriment from those occurrences that are enhancing the welfare of the western farming interest. From all these circumstances it results that large imports must be made in payment of the produce sold abroad, even if the import trade is confined strictly to returns of produce sold, and it is highly probable that to admit of these returns the value of imports will, for the coming year, be considerably enhanced. It is not probable, however, that any speculative imports will take place to any extent beyond what will be paid for by the exports. The modification of the tariff will probably affect the imports in no other way than by admitting goods bearing low duties, instead of an amount of specie, which might be forced home were goods excluded. That is to say, if a certain amount of produee is sold abroad, it is clear that the proceeds must come home; if, then, the tariff excluded goods or taxed them too highly, the medium of remittance would be specie; if the taxes are relaxed, goods will take the place of specie, and the government evenue be enhanced. On many goods, however, French manufactures in par ticular, the duties are raised by the new tariff, and therefore the enhanced sales to that country are more likely to be paid in specie, more particularly, as we have seen, that the exchanges are in favor of France as relates to England. In former years, more particularly 1839, when the duties on French goods were very low, the imports from that country were very large, and were paid for by bills on England, and those bills running on London in favor of France on American account added seriously to that drain upon the Bank of England which so nearly jeopardized its existence in October, 1839. The new tariff appears to change the relations between the three countries, inasmuch as that by raising the duties on French wines and silks, and lowering those upon British goods, it encourages a direct trade between England and America, and tends to check that with France. Indeed, the trade has hitherto always been in favor of the United States against England, and in favor of France against the United States, and England has paid France the balance. The course of the French government has always been commercially hostile to the United States;-while the latter have admitted French goods at very low duties, France has nearly prohibited United States produce. The French wine and silk interests will now exert themselves to procure a modification of the duties on American produce, particularly tobacco. It is doubtless true that the import of goods under the new tariff will be larger than were the tariff of 1842 to remain in operation, and that the import of specie will be less than would have been the case. We apprehend, however, that the operation of the sub-treasury law, with its specie clause, will, until the commercial community have become accustomed to it, tend to prevent any extraordinary import of goods, how low soever may be the duties. The following are the official figures for the imports and exports for five years, ending June 30, 1846 :— IMPORT OF GOODS INTO THE U. STATES, UNDER THREE TARIFFS.—YEAR ENDING JUNE 30. Total......... $122,957,544 $96,075,071 $42,433,464 $102,604,606 $113,176,966 $117,914,244 Total......... $104,529,621 $99,812,981 $82,825,233 $195,475,832 $106,040,111 $109,582,248 1,682,306 2,251,550 2,413,060 2,343,629 Excess of import.. 20,798,987 386,215 4,536,257 127,536 66 of export... $5,045,699 791,537 It appears that the import dutiable goods was, in 1846, $96,924,234, and the duties netted to the Treasury $26,712,667, or 274 per cent average. The Secretary estimates the receipts at $27,835,731 for the year ending June 30, 1847; of which, five months will be under the old tariff, and seven months under the new; and for the year 1848, $28,000,000, which supposes an import of $112,000,000 dutiable goods-an increase of $16,000,000 over 1846, if the average of the new tariff is 25 per cent. The average duty under the first year of the tariff of 1842 was 35 per cent, and it has annually diminished to 27 per cent. The large export of farm produce last year raised the export of domestic goods to $3,400,000 in excess of the previous year, notwithstanding that the export of cotton was 420,000 bales less-probably worth $12,600,000. For the coming year, the value of the cotton exported will be enhanced beyond that of 1846, as well as breadstuffs, and the domestic exports may reach $116,000,000 of produce; the returns of which would naturally swell the imports: but it may be questioned how far the operation of the specie clause of the Independent Treasury bill will, by keeping the currency dear, and promoting a demand for coin, favor the import of specie rather than dutiable goods. The effect of a dear currency is to diminish the prices of goods, and in consequence check importations. It is also proposed to impose a duty of 25 per cent upon tea and coffee, estimated to yield $2,946,557; and the Secretary makes an allowance from this sum of $446,000 for a reduction of consumption consequent npon the duty. It is a general rule true, that the imposition of a duty, by raising the price, diminishes consumption; but the rule is not strictly applicable: duties and prices may be diminished, and the consumption also diminish from the general depression of business, and inability on the part of consumers to purchase their usual supplies at any price. The following is a table of the quantities consumed under former rates of duty, and the product of those duties: QUANTITY OF TEA AND COFFEE CONSUMED IN U. STATES, WITH RATES AND AMOUNTS OF DUTIES It is observable that under a duty of 50 per cent, which was nearly the equivalent of five cents per pound, the consumption of coffee doubled; and in 1844, when free, it was but little more than in 1830 under a 50 per cent duty. In the same manner, tea paid but 30.87 cents average per pound, in 1822, and the consumption in 1824 was 50 per cent more at a high duty; and with a reduction of one cent per pound, in 1827, the consumption decreased 40 per cent. These figures do not justify the Secretary in allowing a reduction of 17 per cent for the diminution of consumption consequent upon a 25 per cent duty, when the duties on all other articles are to be reduced. There is another feature in the case which would indicate a much larger consumption on the principles laid down by the Secretary. It is this all the coffee and tea consumed carry with them a quantity of sugar. Probably one pound of coffee and one pound of tea are consumed with seven pounds of sugar. The tax on the three, under the tariff of 1842, was 17+ cents; the tax under the new tariff will be 7+ cents. If 25 per cent is added upon the tea and coffee, the duties on the three will be 15 cents, 2 cents per pound less |