CHAPTER IV

GERMANY'S SITUATION

Germany's interest in the dispute - Germany declares that the Austrian note was not communicated to her beforehand - Germany pledged to support Austria Germany insists upon the "localization" of the AustroServian conflict - The responsibility Russia will incur by supporting Servia -The situation between Germany and Russia becomes acute - Germany delivers an ultimatum to Russia.

1. Germany's interest in the dispute

AFTER the Austro-Servian dispute had widened into an Austro-Russian conflict, the next consequence was the entanglement of Germany because of her alliance with Austria.

Defining its views, the German Government declared in a confidential communication to the states of the German Empire: "The attitude of the Imperial Government in this question is clearly indicated. The agitation carried on by the Pan-Slavs in Austria-Hungary has for its goal the destruction of the Austro-Hungarian Monarchy, which carries with it the shattering or weakening of the Triple Alliance and, in consequence, the complete isolation of the German Empire. Our nearest interests, therefore, summon us to the support of Austria-Hungary." (Extract, July 28, G. W. B. exhibit 2.)

The German Memorandum says: "If the Serbs continued with the aid of Russia and France to menace the existence of Austria-Hungary, the gradual collapse of Austria and the subjection of all the Slavs under the scepter of Russia would be the consequence, thus making untenable the position of the Teutonic race in central Europe. A morally weakened Austria under the pressure of Russian Pan-Slavism would be no longer an ally on whom we could

count and in whom we could have confidence, such as we must have, in view of the increasingly menacing attitude of our neighbors on the east and on the west." (Extract, G. W. B. memorandum, p. 5.)

The attitude of Austria toward Servia and the intense popular feeling which had been aroused by the assassination of the Archduke were well understood by all the statesmen of Europe. The uncertain factor of the situation was the attitude which Germany would take. In breathless anticipation Europe waited to see to what extent Germany was prepared to support and assume responsibility for the uncompromising attitude adopted by Austria. It was generally believed, and the opinion was openly expressed in many quarters, that Germany had urged Austria to precipitate a crisis by presenting demands against Servia which she would find it impossible to accept. However little foundation there may have been for such belief, it was generally considered that Austria could not have taken so decisive a step without coming to a previous understanding with her mighty ally. The Russian Minister for Foreign Affairs said that 'Austria's conduct was both provocative and immoral, and that she would never have taken such action unless Germany had been first consulted.' (Modified quotation, July 24, B. W. P. no. 6.)

The statesmen of Europe accordingly waited with anxiety to see whether Germany would back up Austria, as she had at the time of the annexation of BosniaHerzegovina, or whether she would discuss the question from the point of view of the European powers, as she had done in the more recent Balkan settlement of 1913, when the Albanian question so seriously threatened the peace of Europe.

2. Germany declares that the Austrian note was not communicated to her beforehand

The German Government was fully aware that the other powers would consider that she had had a hand in the preparation of the Austrian note, and she hastened to enter a complete denial. The German Ambassador read Sir Edward Grey a telegram from his Government saying that 'they had not known beforehand, and had had no more than the other powers to do with the stiff terms of the Austrian note to Servia.' (Modified quotation, July 25, B. W. P. no. 25; cf. R. O. P. no. 19.)

At Paris the German Ambassador, Baron von Schoen, informed a number of reporters, and called at the Foreign Office to say, that 'there had been no agreement between Austria and Germany over the Austrian note, of which the German Government had been ignorant; although subsequently it had approved it, on receiving communication of it at the same time as the other powers.' (Modified quotation, July 25, F. Y. B. no. 36.)

On July 24, the day after the presentation of the Austrian ultimatum, M. Jules Cambon, the French Ambassador at Berlin, sent his Government the following report of an interview which he had had with the German Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs:

"I to-day asked the Secretary of State in an interview I had with him if it was true, as was stated in the newspapers, that Austria had sent a note to the powers dealing with her differences with Servia; if he had received it, and what he thought of it.

"Herr von Jagow replied affirmatively, adding that the note was forceful, and that he approved it, the Servian Government having long since exhausted Austria's patience. He considers, moreover, that the question relates to the internal affairs of Austria, and hopes that it will be localized. I continued by saying that, not having received

any instructions, I only wished to have with him an entirely personal exchange of views. I then asked him if the Berlin Cabinet had really been in complete ignorance of the Austrian demands before they were communicated to Belgrade, and, as he replied that this was so, I expressed my surprise that he should thus undertake to support pretensions, of the limits and nature of which he was ignorant.

"It is only,' said Herr von Jagow, interrupting me, 'because we are having a personal talk together that I allow you to say that to me."" (Extract, July 24, F. Y. B. no. 30; cf. F. Y. B. no. 15; B. W. P. no. 18.)

On July 23 the French Minister at Munich reported to his Government that the Bavarian Government were acquainted with the terms of the Austrian note.1 (F. Y. B. no. 21.)

On July 30, the British Ambassador at Vienna informed Sir Edward Grey that, 'although he was unable to verify it, he had private information that the German Ambassador knew the text of the Austrian ultimatum before it was dispatched, and telegraphed it to the German Emperor.' (Modified quotation, July 30, B. W. P. no. 95.)

According to the remarks of the Italian Ambassador at Berlin to the Belgian Minister, 'the Italian Government was surprised, to say the least, not to have been consulted in regard to the whole affair by her two allies.' (Modified quotation, July 25, F. Y. B. no. 35; cf. B. W. P., Miscellaneous, no. 10, p. 1.)

On July 27, the Marquis di San Giuliano, the Italian Minister for Foreign Affairs, assured M. Barrère, the French Ambassador, that 'he had not had any previous knowledge of the note. Although he knew that the note would be strong and forceful, he had no idea it would take

1 Cf. statement in the Norddeutsche Allgemeine Zeitung relative to the denial made by the Bavarian Government. (Translation, War-Chronicle, December, 1914, p. 19. Published by M. Berg, Berlin.)

such a form.' (Modified quotation, July 27, F. Y. B. no. 72; cf. F. Y. B. no. 56.)

On July 25, the Belgian Minister at Berlin told the French Ambassador that 'he did not believe in the pretended ignorance of the German Government on the subject of Austria's démarche.' (Modified quotation, July 25, F. Y. B. no. 35.)

This solicitude on the part of Germany to explain her ignorance of the Austrian note seems out of proportion to its significance. (Cf. B. W. P. no. 137.) As M. Jules Cambon remarked-"It is not less striking to note the care which Herr von Jagow and all the other officials under him take to tell every one that they were ignorant of the nature of the Austrian note delivered to Servia." (Extract, July 24, F. Y. B. no. 30.)

The motive was, undoubtedly, to give to Germany's support of Austria a more disinterested aspect than it would have appeared to have had she herself taken part in planning a note couched in such terms. The powers, realizing the intimate relations between the two allies, would be much less disturbed by German support of a note, the terms of which she did not approve, than they would have been if Germany herself had taken part in drawing it up. If Germany had admitted her complicity, it might have been more difficult for Austria to maintain that the question was a matter entirely between herself and Servia.

There seems to be no reason why we should not accept the statements of the officials of the German Government that they had not received a previous communication of

1 July 23, the British Ambassador at Rome 'gathered that the Italian Government had been made cognizant of the terms of the communication which would be addressed to Servia.' (Modified quotation, July 23, B. W. P. no. 38.) Probably the information of the Italian Government only extended to a general and accurate appreciation of the situation and the probable terms of the note, such as was indicated in the report from the French Consul at Budapest. (July 11, F. Y. B. no. 11.) Because of the previous negotiations, recently disclosed by Giolitti, Italy could accurately gauge Austria's intentions.