armies; but this matter could probably have been settled by negotiation, and the Russian Ambassador repeatedly told Sir Maurice that he was prepared to accept any reasonable compromise.

'Unfortunately these conversations at St. Petersburg and Vienna were cut short by the transfer of the dispute to the more dangerous ground of a direct conflict between Germany and Russia. Germany intervened on the 31st of July by means of her double ultimatums to St. Petersburg and Paris. The ultimatums were of a kind to which only one answer is possible, and Germany declared war on Russia on the 1st, and on France on the 3d of August. A few days' delay might in all probability have saved Europe from one of the greatest calamities in history.' (Modified quotation, September 1, B. W. P., Miscellaneous, no. 10, p. 3.)

It is important to compare these statements with the reports which the Austrian Ambassador sent from St. Petersburg. On July 31, Count Szapary telegraphed Count Berchtold: "Your Excellency will have learned from my telegram of the 29th that I, without awaiting instructions, had resumed conversations with Sazonof practically on the basis now suggested by you, without coming noticeably closer to an understanding." (Extract, July 31, A. R. B. no. 55.) The next day, August 1, he sent the following report:

"On my visit to M. Sazonof to-day, I declared that I had received certain instructions, but that I was not aware of the situation created in Vienna by the Russian general mobilization.

"Therefore, in carrying out the instructions which had been dispatched to me before that event, I could not take into account the newly created situation. I said that the two points of your instructions dealt with the misunderstanding arising out of our refusal to discuss matters any further with Russia. As I had said, even before

I was authorized to do so, this conception was erroneous. I pointed out that you were not only willing to enter into negotiations with Russia on a most comprehensive basis, but even to discuss the wording of our note, inasmuch as it was only a question of interpretation.

"I emphasized the point that your instructions once more bore out your good intentions; that I was still ignorant of the effect produced in Vienna by the Russian general mobilization, and that I could but hope that events might not yet have carried us too far. In any case I considered it my duty at the present momentous juncture to furnish another proof of the good-will of the Austro-Hungarian Government.

"M. Sazonof, in reply, expressed his satisfaction at this evidence of our good intentions, but observed that for obvious reasons the neutral ground of London would promise better success for the proposed negotiations than St. Petersburg. I replied that you desired to be in direct touch with St. Petersburg, and that I was consequently unable to give an opinion on the suggestion, but would not fail to convey it to you." (August 1, A. R. B., no. 56.)

These dispatches do not bear out the statements of MM. Viviani, Cambon, and de Bunsen, that Austria and Russia were on the point of a settlement when the German ultimatum to Russia intervened. Austria was willing to give assurances to Russia that she would not impinge upon either the territorial integrity or the sovereignty of Servia. She would not, however, agree to any modification of the terms of the ultimatum, and insisted upon pursuing her military operations until the ultimatum had been accepted without condition by Servia. Austria had announced that it would not be enough for Servia to accept the terms of the original ultimatum after war had been declared, but that she would have to give, beside, security to indemnify Austria for the expense incurred in mobilizing. (Cf. A. R. B. no. 17.)

At the last moment, July 31 (see A. R. B. no. 51), Austria agreed to consider the Servian answer as a basis for negotiation, on condition (1) that she continue her military operations against Servia, and (2) that Russia demobilize. On her side Austria would then arrest her preparations in Galicia. It does not appear whether Austria also would have agreed to arrest her advance after she had taken Belgrade. If Russia had demobilized, Austria might have found some new excuse for continuing her conquest, and Russia would then have been in no position to make her protest heard.

Under the circumstances, the Russian Government could not have demobilized against Austria, and it would have been very difficult for it to remain passive while Austria invaded Servia. It is possible that the fear which Russia may have had that the other powers would ask her to make that sacrifice for the cause of peace hastened the issuance of the general mobilization order after the German Ambassador had threatened a counter-mobilization. At that point both Austria and Russia were playing for the support of the other powers. When Germany, instigated by Austria, threatened Russia, July 29, Russia replied by drawing the attention of England and France to the undiplomatic course pursued by the German Ambassador and, on the 31st, issued the order for a general mobilization.'

13. The failure to reach a compromise

The principal efforts of the diplomatists had been directed towards securing some solution in regard to the Servian question which would satisfy both Austria and Russia. The powers were able neither to find an acceptable compromise nor to reach any agreement as to the method of procedure for continuing the search further. Mediation had been suggested and refused. Direct conversations

1 French authorities argue that Austria mobilized before Russia. See Durkheim and Denis, Who Wanted War? p. 40, note 2.

had been accepted by Austria and Russia and then terminated because Austria was unwilling to discuss any modification of her terms as laid down to Servia. Meanwhile the various military preparations had increased the tension and diminished the chance of reaching a peaceful solution, while at the same time stimulating the diplomats in their final efforts to find some acceptable compromise. Various formulas were suggested, but in the confusion of the last two or three days it is not possible to decide with any definiteness how far they might have been acceptable if further time for peaceful discussion could have been found.1 On July 30, Austria, at the solicitation of Germany, explained to Russia that she was ready to elucidate the terms of her note to Servia and to continue direct negotiations with Russia, and Russia on this same day modified the conditions she had laid down in her first formula, but no longer agreed to arrest her military preparations. This Sazonof formula, as we have seen, required Austria to accept the mediation of the powers and eliminate from her ultimatum those conditions which were incompatible with the maintenance of Servian independence and integrity. The next day (July 31), just after Germany had launched her ultimatum requiring Russia to demobilize, Sir Edward Grey brought forward his final proposal, which was that Austria and Russia should arrest their military preparations, on the understanding that the powers would

The situation was characterized by the Paris Journal des Débats as follows: "All these formulæ of the old Chancelleries have had their day. Let us consider facts only. The Triple Alliance has challenged the Triple Entente. The German Ambassadors at Paris, London, and St. Petersburg have just supported the Austrian ultimatum to Servia, declaring that the Governments to which they were accredited must, under penalty of incalculable consequences, allow Austria to enslave Servia. The Cabinets at St. Petersburg, Paris, and London have replied in courteous terms that they would not allow this crime to be consummated. It has gone as far as that. All the formulæ in the world will not change the situation. Austria-Germany must effectively renounce the execution of her plan or the two forces will come face to face." (Extract, July 31, 1914, Journal des Débats, Paris, "Le Dessein Austro-Allemand.")

work to find some solution satisfactory alike to Austria and Russia. According to these terms Austria would receive adequate guaranty against the continuance of the hostile Servian propaganda and unfriendly action of Servia, of which she justly complained. With due regard to the rights of Servia and the prestige of her mighty protector, nothing would be accepted which should infringe upon Servia's rights as a sovereign state. It was Sir Edward's thought that Germany might support this proposal at Vienna while the other powers entered into a friendly discussion at London, but although the German Government expressed a favorable opinion of this proposal, the Secretary for Foreign Affairs, Von Jagow, refused to coöperate at Vienna until an answer to the German ultimatum should be received from Russia. This dashed all hopes, since it was hardly likely that Russia would make a conciliatory reply to an ultimatum couched in such terms.

It is hard to overestimate the place which compromise plays in the affairs of nations. But for the system of mutual "give and take," all international intercourse were well-nigh impossible, and except where there is an intention to force an issue, in all disputes the governments concerned are ready to concede something of their extreme claims for the sake of reaching a half-way and peaceful result.1 It is the work of the diplomatist to trace this line,

1 Cf. R. O. P. no. 51, where Von Jagow told the Russian Ambassador at Berlin that he learned that M. Sazonof was "more inclined than previously to find a compromise acceptable to all parties." M. Sazonof had said to the German Ambassador that, "after the concessions which had been made by Servia, it should not be very difficult to find a compromise to settle the other questions which remained outstanding, provided that Austria showed some good-will and that all the powers used their entire influence in the direction of conciliation." (Extract, July 29, B. W. P. no. 92 (2).)

Such evidently was not the frame of mind of Baron von Giesl, the Austrian Minister at Belgrade, when two days before the presentation of the Austrian ultimatum he wrote to Vienna: "Half measures, demands, endless debating, and finally a foul compromise, would be the hardest blow to Austria-Hungary's prestige in Servia and her standing as a great power