and for such negotiations a certain length of time is necessary. The more complex and delicate the situation, the longer must be the period allowed. In the present instance the diplomats realized from the very first that in place of weeks, a few days would have to suffice to effect the work of peace. The task would have been difficult enough in an atmosphere of general confidence and good will, but was rendered impossible by the mutual rivalries and distrust of the powers. In his speech in the House of Commons, August 3, Sir Edward Grey said:

"In the present crisis, it has not been possible to secure the peace of Europe; because there has been little time, and there has been a disposition at any rate in some quarters on which I will not dwell to force things rapidly to an issue, at any rate to the great risk of peace, and, as we now know, the result of that is that the policy of peace, as far as the great powers (generally) are concerned, is in danger...."

in Europe." (Extract, July 21, A. R. B. no. 6.) The Austrian Government seem to have taken these words to heart.

CHAPTER VIII

SIR EDWARD GREY AND THE ENGLISH DIPLOMACY

The important rôle of England - Efforts to prevent war Efforts to organize mediation-England refuses to take sides -The Anglo-French Entente - England declares that she is not interested in a Balkan question England warns Germany that she will not hold aloof if France is involved Germany's bid for English neutrality-Divergence of opinion in England - England's vital interests-England's inquiry relative to Belgium's neutrality — England asked to guarantee the neutrality of France - Germany's detention of English vessels - Germany invades Luxemburg - England agrees to protect the French coasts-The British ultimatum.

1. The important rôle of England

In the midst of all these preparations, mobilizations and counter-mobilizations, England with her First Fleet assembled at Portsmouth was the key to the whole European situation. The fears of Austria and Germany and the hopes of France and Russia centered about the probable course of England. No other state was so free from entangling alliances, none was so secure from invasion, and in case of war, no state as a neutral would have had such an opportunity for commercial expansion. But England, having built up an immense empire, required security above everything; so her first desire was to prevent the outbreak of any war between the powers, and if this should not be possible, she still hoped to keep out of it herself.

At this critical juncture the control of England's foreign affairs was in the experienced hands of the broad-minded and large-framed statesman - Sir Edward Grey.1 In the short period between the presentation of the Austrian note at Belgrade and the British ultimatum at Berlin, Sir

1 Sir Edward Grey, third baronet, was born April 25, 1862. He was educated at Balliol College, Oxford, and has been a member of the Liberal party in Parliament since 1885. In 1892 he became Under-Secretary for Foreign Affairs, holding office three years. Since 1905 he has held the office of Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs.

Edward is shown by the British White Paper to have had a constant succession of interviews, and to have sent nearly sixty dispatches to the British representatives at the capitals of the great powers. Together with this great tax on his time and energy went the heaviest responsibility which has ever fallen to any single man. Under ordinary circumstances the responsibility of the British Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs is heavy enough, when he can refer to his colleagues and gauge the trend of opinion in his party or throughout the country as a whole; but when events move with such rapidity as they did just preceding the outbreak of the present war, he has to make almost instantaneous decisions on very important questions, where any misstep may destroy confidence in his party or even involve his country in war. He has to decide what the country wishes and what the country needs, and act upon it forthwith. It is easily understood that Sir Edward Grey's first object must have been to prevent the outbreak of war, but he had at the same time to be working to keep England out of the war should it prove inevitable. His great responsibility lay in deciding which plans or methods to follow. He had to be sure that he took no step without the support of a Cabinet which was torn by conflicting views; he had further to feel certain that the policy adopted would secure a large non-partisan majority in Parliament and be enthusiastically acclaimed by the press and the whole country. Not a very easy problem in statecraft, as we shall see when we come to examine the intricacies of the political situation and the sudden transformations during the fortnight preceding the declaration of war against Germany.

In the critical week following the presentation of the Austrian ultimatum, the diplomats tried one plan after another, and one plan in conjunction with another, and always it was Sir Edward Grey to whom they turned from all sides.

2. Efforts to prevent war

Sir Edward turned his attention from the very first to preventing war between any of the principal powers. As he observed to the German Ambassador at London, "When there was danger of a European conflict, it was impossible to say who would not be drawn into it." (B. W. P. no. 90.) He made suggestions, he fathered the proposals of others, he was ceaseless in his efforts for peace. He first advised Austria against an ultimatum, explaining how it would be likely to inflame public opinion in Russia, and could, he said, be introduced later if Servian procrastination made it necessary. When he learned that the time limit of the ultimatum was only forty-eight hours, he had recourse to the telegraph, and worked with France, Russia, and Italy in an attempt to prevail upon Austria, either directly or through the mediation of her ally, Germany, to extend the delay long enough to permit of finding some way out of the threatening complications. When Germany refused to join in making the representations at Vienna, and Austria refused the requested extension, Sir Edward instructed the British representative at Belgrade to bend his efforts toward securing a conciliatory reply from Servia. So successful was the combined influence of Russia, England, and France that for a moment it seemed as if Austria must accept Servia's reply, and forego the war for which her people were clamoring; but in spite of all the persuasion lavished upon her, Austria pronounced the reply unacceptable.1

3. Efforts to organize mediation

While all this was taking place, Sir Edward Grey had been striving to set up a mediatory conference at London,

1 Some of the indications of England's disposition to exercise a pacific and restraining influence at Vienna, Belgrade, and St. Petersburg will be found in the following dispatches: B. W. P. nos. 5, 6, 11, 17, 18, 30, 44, 46, 65, 72, 104, 110, 111; A. R. B. no. 38.

and as soon as he found that several of the powers approved the project, he issued the formal invitation and asked the accepting Governments to urge upon Belgrade, Vienna, and St. Petersburg to refrain from all aggressive action until the conference should be able to arrive at some solution. Germany agreed to mediation in principle, and declared that she was ready to coöperate in mediation if necessary to keep the peace between Austria and Russia, but said emphatically that Austria and Servia must be allowed to settle their difference without interference from other powers. In place of the British proposal, the German Government suggested to Russia that the AustroRussian disagreement over the Servian question be made the object of direct conversations. Russia accepted with alacrity, and Sir Edward Grey held his mediation proposal in abeyance in the hope that the direct negotiation might succeed. These conversations were suddenly interrupted when Austria, as if fearing that the negotiations might be successful in robbing her of an excuse for war against Servia, declared that she could not discuss any modification of the terms of the Servian reply, and put Europe face to face with a fait accompli by declaring war against Servia. Russia refused to be satisfied by Austria's assurances that she would not impair Servia's independence, and now again Russia, France, and Italy turned to Sir Edward Grey, imploring him to renew his proposal for conferences at London as the only hope of averting war. But Germany again raised objections—she felt that she could not drag her ally before a European tribunal, which would sit in judgment on matters interesting only Austria and Servia. The British Foreign Minister hastened to explain that the conference would not be of so formal a nature, and that nothing would be proposed which had not first been submitted to both Austria and Russia for their approval. In the vain effort to find some basis of mediation acceptable to Austria, it was even suggested that Austria might save